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I had heaps of fun writing this with @ArcticTroy @ArcticFellow 👇🏻 we put forward a conceptual framework for an #Arctic Security Forum - something lacking. “Arctic Security and Dialogue: Assurance through Defence Diplomacy” @WarInstitute @MDiplomacyWORLD moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/07/11/arc…
Arctic militarization & strategic competition in the region is ⏫ problem is: there is no effective forum for Arctic defence authorities to discuss the potentially emerging security dilemma or the spectrum of associated and relevant issues involving Arctic non-/State interests.
Some current security forums capable of hosting dialogue on Arctic military-security affairs do exist, but these are inadequate for any real strategic discourse due to the fact that the Arctic’s largest stakeholder is not considered an ‘equal member’ in these fora.
The Arctic Council functions well as an intergovernmental forum on Arctic issues, but its founding documents specifically exclude any discussions on defence or security. Trying to bring security issues into this runs the risk of damaging a well-functioning mechanism.
The Arctic is naturally geared for sustaining diplomatic outcomes and ironically, all Arctic states hold a common strategic interest: stability.
Figure ⬇️ Example of Current Arctic Organizations and Responsibilities
In terms of the security forum’s construct, we see three viable options ➡️ Option A: The forum is limited to the Arctic Eight defence authorities and their select delegations. This is the ideal approach as it affords the most lateral movement for military diplomacy in the Arctic.
➡️ Option B: Implement Option A but also develop an observer mandate too. this option ensures that any potential NATO forum role develops under Russian required consensus. easily extends toward potential roles of other interested participants, such as China.
➡️ Option C: the development of a security forum led by the Arctic ‘Western’ states with an offer extended to Russia to join. least viable option given Moscow would likely reject ‘junior partner’ overtures. current fragmented Arctic defence efforts demonstrates the problems.
It is in the best interests of the Arctic region to have a credible body in place to navigate and preemptively negotiate military-security issues and threats involving mutual interests.
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