Greenland-Arctic thoughts:

Danish notion there isn't a China problem...what does their own data tell us in (select) Nordic intelligence threat assessments re Arctic (in)security viz China?

(PIC cover of Norway's 2024 intel assessment ft. Bear 🇷🇺 & Dragon 🇨🇳)

nb: did not include Russia bc over 50% of Arctic Ocean coastline is legitimate Russian territory so in "external actor" terms lets just look at China. 1. 🇳🇴2025 Norwegian Threat Assessment (PST)

"Chinese actors have shown interest in developing the Port of Kirkenes, and in establishing the port as a transportation hub in the Arctic"

2025 Norwegian Intelligence Service (FOCUS)

"China has ambitions to strengthen its presence, capabilities and influence in the Arctic in the coming years. China currently has five polar icebreakers and is working on developing heavier icebreakers and icebreakers with nuclear propulsion. This enables more Chinese sailings in the Arctic, thereby increasing the ability to map the region for both civilian and military purposes."

Australia’s economic Cold War era with Dr Heather Smith @AIIANational:
✍️ we didn’t expect Trump 2.0 policy trajectory / it opened door to allow 🇨🇳 to be regional hegemon.
✍️ unprecedented way in which Middle East conflict has tested Australian cohesion & politics - for which we may never heal. ✍️ global economy has proved largely resilient - but business is assuming costs & it’s all temporary buffers.
✍️ global financial system changes will be consequential - it has been transformed. risks to 🇺🇸 financial stability.
✍️ but global markets have been stunningly indifferent.

new🇨🇳megaport in Chancay, Peru, is about so much more than it appears. let's talk about Antarctica.

1/ port-stuff: 🇨🇳 frames as BRI win, evidence of China-Latin America enduring linkage, $1.3 billion project links Asia to South America, Xi calls it the “Inca Trail of the New Era" 2/ more port-stuff: reduces shipping transit between South America and Asia from 40 days to 23 days, some 20% cheaper for overall costs, plenty of Chinese state media reporting on its "multipurpose" use.

flashback to NATO’s 1980s Forward Maritime Strategy should deterrence fail for the Alliance. Forward Strategy for the 1980s

@IEA World Energy Outlook 2022 drops, amid #Russia-#Ukraine War. short 🧵of highlights:

"The world is in the midst of its first global energy crisis – a shock of unprecedented breadth and complexity"

iea.org/reports/world-… 🇷🇺 "Pressures in markets predated Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but Russia’s actions have turned a rapid economic recovery from the pandemic – which strained all manner of global supply chains, including energy – into full-blown energy turmoil"

Russia welcomes Arctic cooperation with non-regional countries. a 🧵 on why suspending #Arctic dialogue & engagement w Moscow was a serious misstep. arctic.ru/international/… morality of engagement appeared to be the narrative which won out in this (likely) protracted war. in lieu of the transnational, frontier challenges which the #Arctic whips up - climate change, global transportation, data, space, minerals, hydrocarbons, fisheries.

Russian-Asian #Arctic Research Consortium founded: ten Russian and Chinese universities will become part of the Russian-Asian Arctic Research Consortium 👇🏻 arctic.ru/international/… + proposals sent to India, Vietnam and Singapore, as well as Hong Kong.

China Using Drones to Map And Survey #Antarctica asiafinancial.com/china-using-dr… Sun Yat-sen University falls ‘High Risk’ on @ASPI_org Def Tracker & is on the 🇺🇸 gov list of unverified institutions (export bans).

instead of getting upset abt a retired Australian male emailing a publication I wrote for to "bring to attention" the fact that I am *not* Australia's foremost Russia (nor Antarctic) expert & requesting they not publish my work anymore....🤣 I have decided to share a few hot tips to help others wanting to work in Australia's security academic sphere.

(also full disclosure: I plan to continue writing on Russia & on polar security issues, without permission).

#Pompeo 🇩🇰 meeting readout (Arctic inc): Danish Min Kofod outlines pragmatic approach to 'deterrence' & dialogue wrt 🇷🇺 "we will ensure that we have the proper capabilities in the region, & we want to maintain close cooperation based on Arctic Council & the Ilulissat Declaration" Min Kofad did not frame #Arctic concerns related to China, which was interesting. both "signed new MoUs...that cover a wide range of areas, like growing Greenland’s mining and energy sectors through transparent investment, helping manage land and fisheries" ....transparency...

U.S #Arctic fun: 1. Issues outlined miss prob only disagreement bw A5 states - 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 maritime challenge 2. technically it’s a process of ‘remilitarisation’ on account of the Cold War 3. lumping 🇨🇳 🇷🇺 into same axis in Arctic is problematic - geography/history makes one legitimate 4. 🇺🇸 is extremely active & engaged in Arctic gov structures & WGs - not sure how a consulate here will bolster any real power. “Facility” 👀 this expensive office block will work to interrupt sig advances 🇨🇳 has made into 🇬🇱 economy, gov/industry & precious minerals sectors.

I had heaps of fun writing this with @ArcticTroy @ArcticFellow 👇🏻 we put forward a conceptual framework for an #Arctic Security Forum - something lacking. “Arctic Security and Dialogue: Assurance through Defence Diplomacy” @WarInstitute @MDiplomacyWORLD moderndiplomacy.eu/2020/07/11/arc… Arctic militarization & strategic competition in the region is ⏫ problem is: there is no effective forum for Arctic defence authorities to discuss the potentially emerging security dilemma or the spectrum of associated and relevant issues involving Arctic non-/State interests.