Here's the latest from @AndrewDiCap, @Jen_Topping and I on EDC's survey of the initial impacts of COVID-19 on Canadian exporters edc.ca/en/blog/covid-…
#CdnEcon
#CdnEcon
First the good news:
1) It looks like the worst is behind us...
Our survey corroborates other indicators for May, which suggest the Canadian economy has turned the corner—tentatively emerging from the worst of the global pandemic, and taking the first steps on road to recovery.
1) It looks like the worst is behind us...
Our survey corroborates other indicators for May, which suggest the Canadian economy has turned the corner—tentatively emerging from the worst of the global pandemic, and taking the first steps on road to recovery.
...Business re-openings are slowly proceeding, in a tentative phased-in approach (although many are still operating well below capacity).
Of the 54% of respondents who had closed their physical store locations:
Of the 54% of respondents who had closed their physical store locations:
Good news #2) Canadian companies are investing in online capabilities:
Almost one-third of respondents say they’ve increased their online presence because of COVID-19, and 16% say they’ve developed online capabilities essentially from scratch, which didn’t exist before.
Almost one-third of respondents say they’ve increased their online presence because of COVID-19, and 16% say they’ve developed online capabilities essentially from scratch, which didn’t exist before.
...Moreover, there's compelling evidence that companies with better online capabilities have been able to moderate their sales declines:
...Good news #3) Canadian companies are identifying new opportunities, both in domestic and international markets.
More businesses are pivoting to new activities to support the pandemic. The share of respondents who said they are pivoting their production rose from 16% to 20%.
More businesses are pivoting to new activities to support the pandemic. The share of respondents who said they are pivoting their production rose from 16% to 20%.
...That said, it's still clearly a very difficult operating environment for most companies.
The top challenge for Canadian companies is business recovery, and internationally, the main challenge has shifted from cancelled contracts to travel restrictions.
The top challenge for Canadian companies is business recovery, and internationally, the main challenge has shifted from cancelled contracts to travel restrictions.
...Another key finding from our survey: COVID-19’s impacts are now expected to last longer.
In April, the most common response was for impacts to last 4-6 months.
By May, the most common response shifted dramatically to > 1 year, with a slightly larger move for export sales.
In April, the most common response was for impacts to last 4-6 months.
By May, the most common response shifted dramatically to > 1 year, with a slightly larger move for export sales.
...The vast majority (96%) of respondents reached out for government support.
The most frequently used programs include: Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS, 33% of respondents); Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA, 18%); and Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB, 14%).
The most frequently used programs include: Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS, 33% of respondents); Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA, 18%); and Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB, 14%).
...So #CdnEcon is still in the early stages of adjusting to a major shock, but there are some (+) signs things are starting to improve.
The EDC Research Panel will conduct our 3rd survey in a few months. We hope to report new insights as we're farther along the road to recovery.
The EDC Research Panel will conduct our 3rd survey in a few months. We hope to report new insights as we're farther along the road to recovery.
