Any thoughts on this #CdnEcon?
I've heard this refrain a lot in the lat few weeks.
It's too hard to forecast right now, so we won't attempt to do so.
What do you think?
I've heard this refrain a lot in the lat few weeks.
It's too hard to forecast right now, so we won't attempt to do so.
What do you think?
...As someone who has spent many years forecasting, this reaction strikes me as incredible --- especially among forecasters.
Of course any point forecast will be wrong, it was also so.
Of course any point forecast will be wrong, it was also so.
...But one key point of a forecast --- is *the exercise* of doing the forecast.
It forces you to sit down, as a collective team, reflect, educate yourself on recent developments and importantly use data, analysis and modelling to quantify a complicated and uncertain world.
It forces you to sit down, as a collective team, reflect, educate yourself on recent developments and importantly use data, analysis and modelling to quantify a complicated and uncertain world.
...And so I honestly can't think of any other time in my 20-year career (include the global financial crisis) when that forecasting exercise could be more valuable than right now.
...This is *the* time when thinking through quantitative scenarios, based on explicit assumptions (that can be monitored and updated), can provide some real insights for business strategies & longer-term planning.
Turning points are when you earn your credibility and money!
Turning points are when you earn your credibility and money!
...I mean this for people who proudly call themselves forecasters, and unabashedly tell others with a straight face they can foresee the unknowable future:
You had one crucial part of your job. It was doing the forecast!
Not doing the forecast...that's not an option.
You had one crucial part of your job. It was doing the forecast!
Not doing the forecast...that's not an option.
Of course, we need to highlight the caveats and weaknesses in the exercise. We should always be doing that.
But if you're going to pick up your ball and run off the field because the job has gotten too hard, then don't expect me to take your forecast seriously in the future.
But if you're going to pick up your ball and run off the field because the job has gotten too hard, then don't expect me to take your forecast seriously in the future.
