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What if I told you the last month, the estimated national hospitalization rate to cases was 5.8, and the FACT (FL, AZ, CA, TX) states were below that (3.8%)? What if I told you the last 30 days the national average case fatality rate was 2.0% and the FACT states were 1.2%?
See notes for methodology and source data

These are split up into the FACT & Southern states, Northeastern & Great Lakes and Western.
Top 15 states in hospitalization rates (hospitalizations as a percentage of total cases reported) for June 13-July 4...

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Kyle Lamb
@kylamb8
I hate to be the bearer of bad news to the doomsday gang, but even with surging cases, increased hospital occupancy and 'reported' elevated deaths in the last week or two, hospitalization and case fatality rates both are as low as they've been in CA, FL, TX, AZ & GA.
Take a look at these rate trends...
I stated this in the thread, but I'll state it one more time: Deaths/Cases are by date of report from Covid Tracking Project. Hospitalization occupancy is from NHSN census. All data is in aggregate two week intervals ending in the weeks listed in the headers.
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Kyle Lamb
@kylamb8
With a huge assist from @tlowdon who let me use his data to fill in gaps I had missing for early June, I am putting together a multi-dimensional date of death chart which will show deaths by week occurred, publicly reported deaths by week and weeks when CDC updated the deaths.
Top row: Deaths reported publicly by week

West to East: Provisional death counts by CDC when death occurred, columns representing the week when CDC added them.

Color striping indicates a way to track trends based reporting week. First red = 1st week of data, Orange = 2nd, etc.
Most recent four week sum of deaths by reporting week:

July 11: 2,340
July 4: 2,868
June 27: 3,064
June 20: 5,226
June 13: 5,665
June 6: 6,809
May 30: 7,769
May 23: 10,960
May 16: 11,545
May 9: 9,387
May 2: 12,590
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Kyle Lamb
@kylamb8
So far, 132 people have died out of 42.2 million people in that age group per 2020 population estimates (CDC). That's 3 per 1 million. This "professor" is trying to tell you 3 to 7 per 10,000 FBS football players will die.

Junk science.
Here, I'm showing my work:
Thing is, if you use only the case fatality rate of the age group (roughly 0.06%), every single FBS player would have to be infected to expect 7 deaths. But the reality is the true infection rate is much lower and there's no way every single player is getting it.
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