Thread by @kylamb8

With a huge assist from @tlowdon who let me use his data to fill in gaps I had missing for early June, I am putting together a multi-dimensional date of death chart which will show deaths by week occurred, publicly reported deaths by week and weeks when CDC updated the deaths.

Top row: Deaths reported publicly by week

West to East: Provisional death counts by CDC when death occurred, columns representing the week when CDC added them.

Color striping indicates a way to track trends based reporting week. First red = 1st week of data, Orange = 2nd, etc.

Most recent four week sum of deaths by reporting week:

July 11: 2,340
July 4: 2,868
June 27: 3,064
June 20: 5,226
June 13: 5,665
June 6: 6,809
May 30: 7,769
May 23: 10,960
May 16: 11,545
May 9: 9,387
May 2: 12,590

Did TES call it? These last couple weeks might be an indication.

https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1279144058330460161?s=20

This is what's happening:

1) States report new deaths. Regardless of when they happened. If they increase, media blows it up.

2) These deaths are reported to the CDC and lag a bit

3) When CDC updates numbers, we can see when those deaths were occurring the states had reported

By analyzing this data, we can see if states were changing prior deaths to "probable" or if they're backlogging. When we do this, we can combat the increasing deaths narrative. What we found this week is that the couple of spikes that were seen in 'public' numbers were not spikes

I hope this helps, I've included these notations to help explain how to read the chart: