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We do our nightly update of covidexitstrategy.org and data for ICU/beds is now unavailable from @CDCgov.

nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/…

A critical indicator is missing. 🤬

hhs.gov/sites/default/…

With @HHSGov as the only source, they need to aggregate this data and make it public.
The public needs an aggregate view of the data being collected by "HHS Protect Now".

fedscoop.com/hhs-system-whi…

This appears to be the new system used by the WH Task Force to coordinate the COVID response.

With daily briefings over, the public needs it more than ever.
My hope is that a bug or another issue is causing the modules/data not to be updated.

cdc.gov/nhsn/covid19/r…
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Ryan Panchadsaram
@rypan
1/ Be *ALERT* when you see rising case numbers, but be *ALARMED* when POSITIVITY is high.

As testing throughput increases the number to focus on is the test positive rate: [# COVID POSITIVE] / [TOTAL TESTS].

If POSITIVITY is high & increasing, you have no excuse but to ACT.
2/ There's a talking point going around which says: "as you test more, of course, you'll find more cases".

That's not true. A state that has the virus in retreat will find fewer cases overall as it tests more.

That's when POSITIVITY % is low & decreasing.
3/ For example, compare two states with similar populations. Arizona and New Jersey.

For every 100 tests in AZ, they are finding 26 people with COVID. For every 100 tests in NJ, they are finding 1 person with COVID.

NJ also conducts almost double the number of tests than AZ.
Read 7 tweets
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Ryan Panchadsaram
@rypan
1/ If we are at war with this virus, we need to push away partisanship and attack it with the interventions that work.

**Things are getting worse.**

We just updated covidexitstrategy.org and added a new color, "Bruised Red" to capture the new extremes that we are seeing.
2/ Our deeper red captures the new highs. States where CASES PER MILLION are more than 150 per day; where POSITIVITY is higher than 10%, & ICU OCCUPANCY is higher than 85%.

By focusing on CASES PER MILLION & POSITIVITY we are more accurately presenting the situation.🍎s to 🍎s
3/ This emphasizes how bad things have gotten in Arizona, Florida, Lousiana, South Carolina, Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Nevada, Idaho, Tennessee, California, Arkansas, Utah, Iowa, and North Carolina.
Read 11 tweets
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Ryan Panchadsaram
@rypan
1/ We can #OpenSafely.

Together with @USofCare, @ResolveTSL, @DukeMargolis, and @USDResponse we've been tracking how states are progressing on key measures: (1) disease spread, (2) impact on health system & (3) testing robustness

covidexitstrategy.org

What have we learned?
2/ **We are only as good as the data that is publicly available**

We rely on @COVID19Tracking, rt.live, and @CDCgov. Two are volunteer efforts and one is a government agency.

We need our @CDCgov to publish real-time, machine-readable data like the others do.
3/ **Testing is hard, but 12 states have shown it is possible to hit baseline targets**

A baseline of 500K/day is needed to protect frontline workers and patients with symptoms. A higher target of 4M/day is needed to properly surveil the virus.

preventepidemics.org/wp-content/upl…
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