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Cathie Wood Profile picture
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Jul 15, 2020 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Yes, a 10% drop in US VMT is a big deal. #Oilpricesare determined at the margin. A 1% drop in demand has a significant impact, so the impact of a 10% drop in one year is huge.
.@ARKInvest believes that the oil price peaked at more than $135 per barrel in 2008 and has been hitting “lower highs” and “lower lows” as demand “growth” has disappointed expectations for the last 12 years.
Oil demand probably hit a secular peak last year and, thanks to #EVs, now is in secular “decline”. Though ARK has no formal forecast, I believe that #Oilprices are on their way back to $12, the level reached after the 1973 oil cartel crisis, or lower, now that EVs are taking off.

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Cathie Wood Profile picture
Jan 26
Today, along with Big Ideas 2022, we streamed ARK’s Big Ideas Summit on YouTube. According to @ARKInvest’s original research, the market cap associated with convergences among five major Disruptive Innovation (DI) platforms will scale nearly 20-fold during the next 10 years.
The five major Disruptive Innovation platforms are gene sequencing, adaptive robotics, energy storage, artificial intelligence, and blockchain technology. They involve 14 different technologies, all of which are converging and disrupting the traditional world order.
As a result, the market cap associated disruptive innovation could rise from roughly 10% to nearly 50% of the global public equity markets during the next 10 years.
Read 4 tweets
Cathie Wood Profile picture
Dec 30, 2021
Today, we learned that, in November, retail inventories rose more than 2%, the fastest pace since the 90’s, while imports jumped 4.7% and exports dropped 2%. Moreover, real consumption (including services) was flat and the saving rate dropped to 6.9%, below pre COVID levels.
As measured by the University of Michigan, which I believe is the best monthly survey on the consumer, sentiment during November and December dropped to a level last seen at the worst of the coronavirus crisis in 2020. In this context, the percent changes listed above make sense.
These percent changes are not annualized, so multiply them by 12 to understand the drama unfolding here in the US. Both businesses and consumers seem to have overreacted to supply chain bottlenecks by building “inventories” of goods while government stimulus was flowing freely.
Read 6 tweets
Cathie Wood Profile picture
Oct 26, 2021
Inflation has flared in response to COVID-related supply chain bottlenecks and oil supply constraints but, IMHO, the powerful and converging deflationary forces associated with AI, energy storage (EVs!), robotics, genomic sequencing, and blockchain technology will bend the curve.
If they expect lower prices, most consumers/businesses will defer purchases, exacerbating a decline in the velocity of money. Despite the burst in cyclical inflation during the last year, velocity is hovering at low levels. If @ARKInvest is correct, the next leg will be down.
I am struck by the behavior of millennials who, at the margin, are sacrificing short term consumption to pay down student loans or invest in crypto and other assets. Bank loan growth also is tepid which would not be the case if velocity were increasing.
Read 4 tweets
Cathie Wood Profile picture
Oct 25, 2021
In 2008-09, when the Fed started quantitative easing, I thought that inflation would take off. I was wrong. Instead, velocity - the rate at which money turns over per year - declined, taking away its inflationary sting. Velocity still is falling.
Now we believe that three sources of deflation will overcome the supply chain-induced inflation that is wreaking havoc on the global economy. Two sources are secular, or long term, and one is cyclical. Technologically enabled innovation is deflationary and the most potent source.
Artificial intelligence (AI) training costs, for example, are dropping 40-70% at an annual rate, a record-breaking deflationary force. AI is likely to transform every sector, industry, and company during the 5 to 10 years.
Read 13 tweets
Cathie Wood Profile picture
Oct 2, 2021
Today, $TSLA announced that in the third quarter it sold 241,300 vehicles globally, up 73% year over year (YoY) and 20% quarter over quarter (QOQ). Meanwhile, $GM blamed the ~33% YoY decline in its US sales on chip shortages. What? #EVs require 3-5x more chips per car produced!
In @ARKInvest’s view, traditional auto manufacturers have been building chip inventories since April when their US sales peaked at more than 18 million units and then dropped more than 30% (65% at an annual rate!) over the next five months to 12.2 million in September.
Addressing the chip shortages in the last two weeks, the Biden Administration has threatened to invoke a traditional war-time measure, the Defense Production Act, which would force companies to disclose supply chain information, including chip inventories.
Read 10 tweets
Cathie Wood Profile picture
Aug 17, 2021
Most bears seem to believe that inflation will continue to accelerate, shortening investment time horizons and destroying valuations. Despite what we believe has been a supply-chain related/short term burst in inflation, both equities and bonds have appreciated since March➡️
Unlike the tech and telecom bubble, this equity bull market has broadened beyond the innovation strategies that boomed last year to value and other stocks that had trailed. The bull market has strengthened, setting the stage we believe for another leg up in innovation strategies.
The equity market is likely to reward disruptive innovation strategies once again when headline inflation breaks and/or fears of recession increase. If the bond market is correct, one or both will be obvious during the next 3-6 months.
Read 8 tweets

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