I looked at our historical polling data from 2016 as of same point 4 years ago & compared Clinton to Biden in our current averages.
National:
Biden +9.1
Clinton +2.1
EVs based on where candidate led by >6.0 or safe for a party (not incl. NE-2/ME-2):
Biden 307
Clinton 198
National:
Biden +9.1
Clinton +2.1
EVs based on where candidate led by >6.0 or safe for a party (not incl. NE-2/ME-2):
Biden 307
Clinton 198
Right now, Biden and Trump combine for about 92% of the vote. In our historical polling average, Trump and Clinton combined for 82%, with Johnson polling at about 8% at same point. Doesn't look like we'll have to deal with the same kind of 3rd party complication this time around.
And regarding a question someone asked me, the 2016 Republican National Convention began on July 18, so the convention bounce hadn't hit yet -- in a handful of days, the data would start to overlap with the bounce period.
Now, it's possible that Trump's numbers benefited a bit from the Mike Pence selection -- Trump's pick was announced on July 15, 2016 -- as the VP pick can provide a spike in attention and support. So something to keep in mind, though this isn't convention bounce territory.
But because of the conventions, which both took place in July, I'm not sure when the next really valid comparison will hit. Maybe just before the Democratic convention in August.
For good measure, I checked, and Clinton's lead varied by between 2 and 4 points nationally in July before the Republican convention. Biden's has been between 8.9 and 9.6 points during the same period.
For good measure again, based on states where Clinton had a 6+ pt lead (or were safe, same criteria as initial tweet), she averaged 220 EVs in 1st half of July by daily polling avg. So better than 4 yrs ago today, but she wasn't nearly as strong a position as Biden is.
