Coming into it, I was very curious to see how "The Plot Against America" on @HBO would work out a 1940 presidential election where FDR loses to Charles Lindbergh. So here's a little thread about the election result in Episode 2. (It's not a spoiler to say Lindbergh wins.)
First, it's useful to understand that FDR won the real 1940 election 54.7%-44.8% in the popular vote and by a huge margin in the Electoral College against Wendell Willkie (R), who was the opposite of Lindbergh on foreign affairs (i.e. an internationalist, not an isolationist). 
So this means a fair amount has to shift for FDR to lose. Let's go through the states specifically mentioned by the show and talk about how realistic or not such a shift was.
First up, they say Rhode Island has been called for FDR. Makes sense -- he won it by about 14 pts in the real 1940 election and had carried it by 10+ points in 1932 and 1936. (+1 realism)
Next they say Massachusetts & Maryland have both been called for Roosevelt. Maryland went for FDR by 17 points in 1940, so that would've held up (+1 realism). Now, Massachusetts was comparably closer -- about 7 pts -- so maybe it flips in a Lindbergh win or is close? (no change)
OK, here's where things get off track. Virginia & Kentucky go for Lindbergh? Eh, KY could've been competitive but VA in 1940 is going D unless it's an R blowout like 1928. The Solid South would've stuck with FDR for most part; this isn't the last problem the episode will have.
Next New York goes for FDR. In real life, NY backed FDR by only about 4 pts in 1940 but he'd won it by 13+ in last 2 elections. It's also his home state. So a big win for him if he holds it in an election he's losing. I'll give that a shaky +1 realism (Lindbergh might've won it).
Connecticut & Georgia (!) go for Lindbergh. CT passes smell test: FDR won it by 7 pts in 1940 but CT voted Republican in 1932 FDR landslide & in 1948 (+1 realism). GA OTOH definitely doesn't. Solid South state, FDR won it by 70 in 1940. He's not losing GA. (-1 realism)
Florida "is looking too close to call" but broadcaster earlier said FDR looked likely to win--tip of the cap to 2000. Thing is, FDR won FL by 48 pts in 1940; it's not going for Lindbergh. Would take 1928 R landslide to flip FL (plus a Catholic Democratic nominee). (-1 realism)
Utah, Arizona and New Mexico go for Lindbergh -- unlikely. AZ was Dem up and down the ballot & FDR won it by 27 pts in 1940 (-1). NM was closer in 1940 (13 pts) but doesn't swing enough (-1). UT went for FDR by 25 in 1940. Unusual state but I doubt it goes for Lindbergh (-1).
California and its 22 electoral votes are still in play, says the radio announcer. Given the overall outcome and the fact the announcer doesn't say it's over yet, I take that to mean CA eventually went for Lindbergh. FDR won it by 16 so that seems unlikely.(-1)
Given the states they report in the episode and the shift of some 1928 Hoover states in the South into the R column, and CA's result leaving things in doubt until the end, I'm going to guess the show's map looked something like this:
However, I think the region the show should've been talking about was the Midwest! Lindbergh's father was a GOP congressman from Minnesota and there were a ton of German-Americans in the Midwest and Rust Belt. This Census map is from 2000 but it tells the story.
So let's try to paint a realistic map of a 1940 Lindbergh-FDR election where Lindbergh wins that accounts for partisanship in recent elections and some ethnic aspects. Here it is:
I let FDR keep NY. NJ only narrowly went for FDR in 1932 & PA actually went for Hoover that year, so that explains my choices there. Midwest is very German & those states all had margins <10 pts in real 1940 election. ID/WY closest Mountain states; OR closest Pacific state.
Anyway, hope you enjoyed this as much as I did. To be clear, I think the show is great so far and the contours of the election map are really a minor quibble at the end of the day.
Also, let me note that I used @270toWin's great Electoral College maps to do this, and you can play around with historical results! Without that, it would've been more time consuming to make those maps. Here's the 1940 election: 270towin.com/1940_Election/…
Bonus: Charles Lindbergh Sr. was a Minnesota GOP congressman, 1907-1917. In 1916, he ran for Senate (1st post-17th Amend Sen race in MN) instead of reelection but finished a distant 4th. He ran against inc R gov in 1918 primary and lost by 13...
...then lost an indy run for his old House seat in 1920. In 1924 he planned to run for gov under Farmer-Labor banner. But he became ill & dropped out, dying that May. His organization backed Floyd Olson, who won the FL primary in June but lost general (Olson later won in 1930).
