@StateHouseKenya @InteriorKE With various hazards intersecting with COVID-19 in Kenya. Don't we need to model both to inform our response capabilities? Thread.. @alaminkimathi @RasnaWarah @BasilioCC @SimbaTirima @aomenya @Engnr_Karimi1 @VictorMwambacha @ajfactual52 @Anon1KENYA 
With over 11000 cases & counting, Kenya now faces the dual challenge of containing a pandemic in the face of our various disasters in waiting. Climate changes further complicate the process, as the intensity of our existing hazards unchanged & able to hit without warning.
If it is not grounds caving in, landslides, floods, a derailment or grotesque road carnage, it can be a dam burst or fires, further complicating our already uncertain challenge in battling COVID-19 . Isn't it time to start a modeling effort that seeks to redress these threats?
With our lackadaisical & often reactive responses. The biggest worry at this moment in time, though many do not see it. Is that, with the upcoming COVID-19 Medical Surge, we already hit an unavoidable trade-off between emergency response & outbreak containment. @SolomonKarori2
For example, when as another Patel dam or the perennial Kijiji or Mukurus kinda fires hit, forcing the evacuation of people or sheltering them together, we might expect a localized outbreak to be basically inevitable. But without an emergency response strategy that prevents that?
It doesn't take an Albert Einstein to know that man-made & or natural disasters can impact the [COVID-19] pandemic directly through disrupting health services & health infrastructure, as well as making social distancing more difficult among people displaced by those disasters.
Any of the natural disasters within our natural habitats & their expanses,could also impact COVID-19 control measures indirectly by disrupting clean water supplies, resources & stretching Govt budgets already struggling to cope with the pandemic responses, within the 47 Counties.
Our scientists have developed several models to understand the impact of various causatives, as well as their impact on diseases such as malaria. But have yet to develop models to predict the impact of, for example natural disasters on pandemics, specifically COVID-19.@chothep
It is no secret we have for decades lacked initiatives to serve as a common platform for future modeling efforts & that its a priority to create a composite robust model that can predict the spread of COVID-19,& one that could eventually address all other disasters.@Hitlerlaw2
Although the combination of man-made, as well as natural disasters & epidemics needs to be addressed, the focus currently must be, on making sure the COVID-19 model, if it is ever made is as comprehensive & well bench-marked as possible. But with our know all leadership ?
Such a model stands to help our scientists compare different interventions, such as relief camps, lock-down or a local quarantine, & even levels of individuals’ compliance to control measures. As well as, provide a tool for decision-making, to curb our game park mentality.
For example, links between climate change & vector-borne disease Chikungunya was recently easily modeled in Mombasa based on shifts in water & weather patterns influencing the life cycle of bugs that carry the pathogens or the pathogens themselves. Can't we do the same again ?
We have all it takes to do it, but if the Govt is deliberately oblivious to our capabilities & the suffering of the voiceless masses ? @solo_ambuku @modhiambos @threadreaderapp unroll
