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More than a quarter (27%) of 3,389 small firms with employees that responded, from a CFIB membership of 110,000 small firms (including the self-employed with no employees), from a business registry census of 1.2 million small and medium enterprises.
Not the only misleading info.
The reason I know this is cuz y'day I was asked to respond to the CFIB claim for a piece by @bbritneff at @globalnews
Here's the presser: newswire.ca/news-releases/…
Before commenting, I asked for survey that revealed % "refused to return to work because of CERB". #DueDiligence
CFIB didn't publish this backgrounder. The reporter sent it. There were other findings (only 6 slides but one is labelled 13) but slide 1 shows only 25% of all biz that responded were having trouble finding staff. Biggest %: in QC (LTCs, hospitality) and MB (food processing/mfg)
There were only 868 respondents to the question "what reasons has your staff given for not returning to work" of which CFIB claims in the presser 62% say "prefer CERB".
Yet this slide says only 14% of all businesses say they had staff who refused to return to work because of CERB
What kind of jobs were hardest to fill? The most COVID19 risky ones where distancing/PPE may be missing: hospitality, warehousing, manufacturing (this is primarily food processing), delivery, construction, personal services (LTCs?)
CERB may indeed be the safest option for you!
The biggest insult to our thinking is that their presser explicitly asks for greater leniency for biz to get the wage subsidy (why should we have to lose 30% of our revenue? why can't we keep everything and get help???) while restricting access to CERB.
newswire.ca/news-releases/…
I expect more from all of us - individuals, communities, nonprofits, businesses, associations, governments - during this pandemic, and you should too.

Let's deal with honest failures, and not waste energy on policy failures that don't exist.

Please.
Everyone.
Here's the @globalnews piece by @bbritneff
globalnews.ca/news/7184365/b…
There are labour shortages in good times and bad, including recessions. Everyone wants to maximize our economic potential.
Is the problem not enough wage subsidies for employers and too much CERB for workers?
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Armine Yalnizyan
@ArmineYalnizyan
Another argument for boosting the economy from the bottom up.
Over 82% of all population growth in Canada came from newcomers in 1st quarter 2020.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-002-…
Will be sole source of labour force growth in <5 years.
Immigrants generally get paid the worst in Canada.
Newcomers come as immigrants (permanent residents) or migrants (temporary residents, mostly workers and students)
By 1st Q 2020, net increase in entries of temp residents fell 80% from previous year (mostly students)
Last highlight from this @StatCan_eng study:
People move from province to province allathetime, mostly looking for work.
"This is the first time in almost five years that Ontario has lost population due to interprovincial migration."

Ontario *needs* people. Treat them all well!
Read 15 tweets
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Armine Yalnizyan
@ArmineYalnizyan
Surprised by job gains? The re-opening was well under way two weeks ago.

Twice as much job gains for men (+206K jobs) than women (+84K).
Goods producing increases>services
The she-cession continues.
The he-covery begins.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
/2
Women with young kids (<6) less likely to get back to work than women with kids 6-17. Women with kids in both age groups less likely to get back to work than men with kids in same age groups.

No recovery without a shecovery
No shecovery without childcare
/3
For recent immigrants (< 5 years here) ~no job recovery.
Employment is down 22.6% from February levels. (not seasonally adjusted)
Immigrants who have been here longer saw 2.2% gain in jobs since last month. Their employment is down 15.1% since Feb, like for most Canadians

/4
Read 19 tweets
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Armine Yalnizyan
@ArmineYalnizyan
How to budget for a post-covid19 world
New Zealand lays out a $50bn plan, heavy on continued wage subsidies/biz support, but also more spending on health, education, housing, environmental concerns, and plenty of room to manoeuvre. theguardian.com/world/2020/may…
Here's the breakout of $50B in NewZealand's latest budget.
$14B was pre-announced.
$15B was announced in this budget.
$20B is yet unannounced, stay tuned, they're policy-ing while driving the car through a storm.
What did this budget announce/What does a post-covid world need?
/3
Of the $15B
* $4B for extending wage subsidies past June ($3.2B) and other biz supports
* $3.3B for Health and Education (impressive social infrastructure measures)
* $3B in new infrastructure spends, primarily to build 8K new housing units
/4
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