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Hypothetically speaking. Russia has the capability to mobilise over 150,000 Ground Forces troops for operational deployment against Ukraine within 96 hours of receiving an alert. 80,000 of those could cross into Ukraine during the first 24 hours. That's for starters. 1/3
Over 5,000 Russian VDV airborne troops plus several thousand Naval Infantry (marines), intelligence (GRU) & other spestnaz units would spearhead to seize and/or destroy strategic targets. Then there are Russia's reserve forces, and the National Guard (maybe 150,000 of them). 2/3
No matter how unlikely to happen we think this is, the fact remains that it is a possibility. Same applies to any rash decision by Putin to test NATO's Article 5 in the Baltic states. NATO's 30-30-30-30 doctrine is woefully inadequate. Game over before it's even begun. 3/3
PS. Please don't try arguing that NATO's (i.e. U.S.) air force assets can mobilise and hold the line. They can do some damage, yes. But Russian air defences are extensive (though poor). Russia will have secured seized territory BEFORE Western politicians have agreed any response.
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