WOW 😍
Boba appears a huge leap towards transparent sensitivity analyses in empirical research
▶️easy multiverse analyses
▶️generates code for all reasonable analytical paths
▶️software-independent (R, Python...)
▶️amazing #dataviz arxiv.org/abs/2007.05551
You will write your syntax and specify where two or more analytical choices are reasonable.
Boba will generate the code for all combinations of reasonable choices for you.
Boba is a domain-specific language (and a visual analysis system) so it works software-independent for #Rstats, #Python etc...
The most amazing thing is the interactive, beautiful and insightful output.
Here, you see that the results on your research question vary considerably. Also, the darker color on the left shows that analytical paths on the "device" variable seem to make a difference for results
So you can click on "device" and see how results vary across the different universes (analytical paths) of that variables
In empirical research, we often have to make it seem like we know an answer for sure and that it is robust to any objection. In reality, this is often not how empirical research works.
Boba (Yang Liu, @AlexKale17, @timalthoff, @jeffrey_heer) promises to be an amazing tool to transparently communicate more of what we know about a particular question and how certain we can be about it.
Both aspects are essential to evaluate knowledge claims #openscience
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
What can you do when an experiment yields null results?
I developed a theory to explain why (some) people derive pleasure from political engagement
14 out of 15 predictions failed
▶️A step-wise process to maximize the informational value of null results doi.org/10.1017/pls.20…
The need-based theory of political motivation in a nutshell:
Building on the ‘Pleasure Principle’, I suspect that people will seek behaviors that made them feel good in the past.
Citizens will therefore seek political engagement when it previously made them feel good.
To understand what actions provide pleasure, I built on the concept of basic psychological needs.
Differences in intrinsic political motivation are theorized to reflect whether political engagement was previously experienced as satisfying basic psychological needs.
After Hansen&Treul reported evidence for a substantive finding in a JOP article, Saraceno reproduced the analysis and found inconsistent evidence for different model specifications.
The journal then invited all three authors to team up and work together to check the robustness.
The newly minted team decided that multiple analytical choices are reasonable for six variables, leading in combination to 288 possible models with reasonable analytical specifications.
Regression analysis with observational data remains the primary analytical method in political science.
However, we will never know whether we controlled for all unobserved confounders.
New sensitivity tools help to assess how likely results are robust to missing controls.
The robustness value (@analisereal,@chadhazlett) applies to multivar. regressions: It is the minimum strength of association that unobserved confounding would need to have, both with the treatment and with the outcome, to change the research conclusions.
V-DEM, potentially the most comprehensive measure on the state of democracy, has published a new report, and the results are staggering.
▶️Hungary is no longer considered a democracy
▶️India is close, too
▶️Now, the majority of people worldwide live in autocracies
(thread)
It is a prime example of how to communicate complex data on important questions:
Accessible language combined with intuitive graphs that help to convey clear messages.
I'll copy key graphs and phrases while reading along.
Assessing "the state of democracy" is hard because the concept is complex and controversial.
But even if conceptual questions were settled, collecting all necessary measures to assess how democratic a country is is a huge undertaking.
People again discuss that certain countries can no longer be considered democracies (Hungary? US?)
Under which conditions do countries qualify as a 'democracy' and what's the alternative category called?
This thread links to a seminal piece on 'electoral authoritarianism'
One line of disagreement is whether to distinguish countries by the *degree* of democratic quality.
While these fine-grained distinctions have value, in his piece Schedler makes the point that "[some] regimes are not less democratic than democracies, but plainly undemocratic."
This raises the question about the essence of what a democracy is.
According to Schedler, having a choice is at the heart of the democratic idea.
Choosing is institutionalized via elections.
However, both plainly democratic and plainly undemocratic countries conduct elections.
In a new study at #APSR, we show how established operationalization strategies of multi-dimensional concepts can systematically lead to wrong conclusions.
Focusing on populist attitudes, we demonstrate simple methods to align theory and measurement.
👇Summary+Preprint+Shiny App
Our (H. Schoen+@ChristianSchim) argument refers to a specific but common type of multi-dimensional concepts which are sometimes called ‘non-compensatory’. Multi-dimensional concepts are non-compensatory when higher values on one component cannot offset lower values on another.
Think of democracy: If we believe that a country only counts as a democracy if it provides both rule of law and free elections then no valid measure of democracy will assign high democracy scores to a country with low 'rule of law' scores even with the election are very,very fair