Let me give you enabling factors and obstacles to this plausible option
Enabling factors:
1. Congress is the weakest and smallest partner of MVA. They are being constantly insulted by NCP and Sena. 2/3 of Congress MLAs (44) comes to 29 or 30. Hard to break 30 but it is best option
1. Congress is the weakest and smallest partner of MVA. They are being constantly insulted by NCP and Sena. 2/3 of Congress MLAs (44) comes to 29 or 30. Hard to break 30 but it is best option
2. Ritesh Deshmukh had made some mysterious tweets days ago. Not sure if they are still there or deleted. Was he indicating that his 2 MLA brothers are thinking of shifting to the BJP?
3. 4 years to go for 2024 LS polls. With national Congress in disarray, local satraps. They fear their future in the Congress that is fading at national and state level. Congress has been number 4 in MH in 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha and Vidhan sabha election in terms of seats
4. Breaking Congress is only possible option for BJP. Other options are waiting for MVA the coalition of thieves to fall by itself or get in an embrace with the NCP
Getting MLAs from the 3 parties to resign n go for bypolls is difficult. Pawar is an expert in defeating turncoats
Getting MLAs from the 3 parties to resign n go for bypolls is difficult. Pawar is an expert in defeating turncoats
5. Never rule out an understanding between Pawar and Modi to break Congress and sharing the spoils. Congress is the weakest and most vulnerable party in MH politics. It has dissapeared from vast swathes of the state
6. In case UPA govt comes to power in MH, 95% chances are NCP will have more MLAs n will get CM post. Unlike 2004 when Congress could bully NCP to forego CM post, that is not possible now. Congress leaders know their party cannot have its CM atleast till 2029.
Obstacles -
1. Amit Deshmukh and Ashok Chavan come from Marathwada and have control over Congress MLAs in nearby seats n even some adjoining districts of Western MH. But their influence on 15 Cong MLAs of Vidarbha, most of the 10 Cong MLAs from Western MH is doubtful
1. Amit Deshmukh and Ashok Chavan come from Marathwada and have control over Congress MLAs in nearby seats n even some adjoining districts of Western MH. But their influence on 15 Cong MLAs of Vidarbha, most of the 10 Cong MLAs from Western MH is doubtful
2. Mukesh Ambani has been at loggerheads with Modi. Would their interests converge so as to support Modi's party. He has good relations with Uddhav and can get Uddhav to make decisions supporting him. Getting Modi to dance at his tunes is impossible.
3. Even if satraps like Ashok Chavan have 15-20 MLAs would they be so desperate about their future is the question. Dynasts like Deshmukh and Chavan whose dad's were MH CMs, would jump only if they are very pessimistic about Congress chances in the state and nationally
