Thread by @JaimeBCBA

THREAD: Today @InfoFAO released an OAP report, tracking it's spending, & giving 3 scenarios of how the OAP would play out long term based on their spending. The bottom line, #ChildhoodBudgets are a crappy plan.
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

Since the @fordnation gov't increased the budget, they have spent $271 million on #NeedsBasedTherapy, $270 million on #ChildhoodBudgets and $67 million on other services.
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

This means that @fordnation and co could've doubled the number of children and youth receiving #NeedsBasedTherapy instead of handing out hush money in the form of #ChildhoodBudgets

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

All while the waitlist grew from 24.9k children at the end of fiscal year 2018-19 to 27.6k at the end of fiscal year 2019-20. @MacLeodLisa original "no more kids languishing" nonsense has been false all along.

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

There are now almost 3000 more kids languishing in the waitlist thanks to @fordnation and the rest of the @OntarioPCParty. The #ChildhoodBudget failed in that aspect.

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

Not surprisingly, that wasn't the only failure by @fordnation, @MacLeodLisa, @ToddSmithPC and the rest of the @OntarioPCParty caucus. The province has also "accrued" $174 million worth of expenses.

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @JR_Ottawa

In this sense, it means that the government has received bills for services and failed to reimburse families, while also failing to provide families with funding by March 31 2020. This is money they're sitting on
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

25.1k families have been affected by this "accrual". Including the 5.9k families who have yet to receive an invite into the #ChildhoodBudget program

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

What will happen to that money? Will it be carried forward to the next budget, increasing funding to the OAP? Or will it just be ignored? Time will tell.
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

It is also very interesting to note that the report notes a DECREASE in the avg funding per child. The early IBI/ABA program came at a cost of $19.8k/child/yr. @coteau plan came at a cost of $29.9k/child/yr.

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

The current #ChildhoodBudget program has been slashed to $8.1k/child/year. All numbers have been accounted and translated to "today money" by the @InfoFAO for clarity. A clear cut in funding has happened.
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

There are 3 senarios outlined by @InfoFAO.
Scenario 1: maintain the same level of support as the @coteau plan (#NeedsBasedTherapy) and keep the $600 mil budget
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

This will lead to 17.86k kids receiving service. 8.7k more kids per year would receive #NeedsBasedTherapy than they did in 2019-20 fiscal year.
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

In other words, more kids would receive more appropriate funding when compared to the # of kids receiving funding that is not needs based under the #ChildhoodBudget. Another clear sign that the @OntarioPCParty has failed. #Shame
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation

The waitlist will also be reduced to 56% of registered families. The percentage of families on the waitlist in 2018-19 was 71% and in 2019-20 it was 75%

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

In other words, the @coteau plan was a WAY better option than the #ChildhoodBudget plan. It also points to a 3rd failure of the CHB plan. The waitlist did not decrease. Graph attached.

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

Scenario 2: lowering service levels (read CUT FUNDING) at a budget of $600 mil. This will apparently lead to more children receiving needs based services, but I don't see how since funding per family is being CUT
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

This will reduce the waitlist, but to get to reduce the 2018 and 2019 waitlist by 56%, funding would have to be CUT to an average of $13.1k/child/year.

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

If the funding is CUT to the same lvl as it was in 2017 ($19.8k/child/yr, which is a reduction of funding of 33%), the waitlist will be reduced to 13.8k families. Attached is a depiction of spediture over the yrs
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

This scenario would also lead to SIGNIFICANT UNDERSPENDING each year. I'm sure the @OntarioPCParty would love to see that to begin slashing budgets further due to "surpluses" or "efficiencies"

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

Scenario 3: increase the budget and the service level back to the same as it was in the @coteau plan.
To eliminate the waitlist with #NeedsBasedTherapy, the budget would have to increase to $1.4 billion

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

This amount of funding will service all 40.7k children & youth enrolled in the OAP and give them funding at an average yearly amount of $29.9k/child.
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

Finally, the @InfoFAO gave considerations for the plan. They are as follows:
1)the current prevelance rates of ASD mean that by 2025-26, 1.6k new children will be enrolled in the OAP.

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

In order to prevent the waitlist from growing, the OAP budget would have to be increased by $96mil by 2025-26. This is to stop it from GROWING. Not to reduce it. In other words, we need more funding.

#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa

2) the # of clinicians delivering services need to be increased. @ChildrenON has claimed that they don't have enough info on this. Clinicians have given it. @Roman_Baber gave an insight into this in his report.
#onpoli #AutismDoesntEndAtFord @fordnation @ToddSmithPC @JR_Ottawa