Richard Baldwin Profile picture
Jul 22, 2020 3 tweets 3 min read Read on X
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Investing for retirement?

You’ll want to have read this & underlying paper by Kopecky & Alan Taylor

@RobinBHarding #pension #equitypremium #demographic #bonds Image
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Safe rate under water, but equity return doing OK, why?

there is a plausible demographic channel that may be driving this trend

\👇 ImageImage
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Aging households are responsible for a savings glut helped to drive down real interest rates on safe assets, but they have lower shares equity

shifting population weight does not have the same effect on equity returns that it has been shown to have on risk free assets Image

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More from @BaldwinRE

Nov 26, 2022
1. Short 🧵on my talk: "Future of trade is intermediate services" | 9 Dec 2022, 18-19h, IHEID (register:docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…) @GVAGrad @AlumniIHEID @_AnabelG @_CTEI @DmitryOpines @GTP_Trade
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👉Start with the "peak trade in goods" chart👇
2. But 60% of ratio fall from peak due to Commodity Supercycle triggered by globalisation's 2nd unbundling
|
Manuf trade declined somewhat - and certainly stopped booming
|
left chart shows commodity composition of overall ratio into manuf, mining, ag
3. 2008=False Peak: turns out national export/GDP ratios of Big-4 (EU, CN, US, JP) peaked before or after 2008, or didn't peak
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ERGO, 2008 peak = artefact of aggregating disparate trends; oops for claims of peak as death knell of neoliberal globalisation; it changed, not died
Read 6 tweets
Nov 26, 2022
1. Why fear of opening?

ordering elderly to vaccinate might led to “dramatic social resistance”

“They don’t want to force a vaccine mandate [but] they can’t afford old people dying”

“that is why stringent Covid controls are still in place”
on.ft.com/3V5Ifjf
2. Fears are founded:

China's ICU capacity is lower than in many Asian countries
3. 30% of old not taken a third Covid jab

main Chinese-made vaccines provide high protection from severe illness and death with 3 doses. But they are less effective & fade faster than the mRNA technology developed by BioNTech/Pfizer & Moderna”
Read 5 tweets
Nov 25, 2022
1/ Globalisation drives inequality? It’s complicated

A 🧵 based on @ft article by @ChrisGiles_ & research by @BrankoMilan etal

👉on.ft.com/3V2Ftva
👉osf.io/preprints/soca…
2/Rampant, within rich-nation inequality was always an American/Anglo-Saxon story

Other rich nations bridled the rise of their 1%

Booming American inequality started with globalisation’s 2nd unbundling (manuf offshoring expansion phase) hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?is…
3/ Automation & globalisation drove market income inequality everywhere, but Europeans used sharing & caring policies to share the gains & pains (US not so much)

Gini coefficient chart👇
Read 8 tweets
Oct 21, 2022
The gas crunch & the hit to EU industry

@FT
Will the energy crisis crush European industry? on.ft.com/3TvpHaJ

Charts in🧵👇
Industry uses more gas than other forms of energy
European industry’s voracious appetite for gas
Read 6 tweets
Sep 30, 2022
“Economic orthodoxy is not ideological but simply the accumulated knowledge &experience of what tends to work best

“It is .a constantly evolving body of thinking &experimenting in the real world

“It is always open to challenge”

@ChrisGiles_
on.ft.com/3renqov
“We have had a consensus of the Treasury, of economists, with the Financial Times, with other outlets, peddling a particular type of economic policy for 20 years. It hasn’t delivered growth,” #Truss said

Lessons for when economic orthodoxy bites back on.ft.com/3renqov
“There is no doubt that the orthodoxy can get things wrong. But it learns from its mistakes. Far from every element of the “Washington consensus” — the economic orthodoxy of the 1990s — survived the Asian financial crisis in the latter part of that decade.
Read 4 tweets
Sep 30, 2022
“Prioritising growth in the recent past would have avoided some obvious policy blunders:
👉May’s insistence on leaving the EU’s single market
👉Osborne’s disastrous obsession with balancing the budget in the teeth of a deep recession” @TimHarford on.ft.com/3y3nZFc
“But while recent governments have demonstrated how to depress growth, we know far less about how to increase it. And Truss’s statements so far do not inspire confidence.”
“It is good to have a prime minister focused on the goal of growth, but what we really need is for her to show signs of being able to stick the ball in the back of the net.” #Truss #Growth
Read 4 tweets

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