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So I've read the long-delayed #RussiaReport. (Read it for yourself here: docs.google.com/a/independent.…). A quick reaction. 👇🏿
1. The report reasonably highlights certain activities the Russians have carried out over the years. Litvinenko & Skripal each get a mention and so do Russia's cyber activities, including disinformation. The overall take is that Russia poses "an all-encompassing security threat."
2. The discussion of Russia's intentions are very blurry. In the ambitious section called "What does Russia want," we have an unsubstantiated reference to Moscow seeing foreign policy as a "zero-sum game" (blatantly untrue, as evidenced by Russia's position e.g. on arms control).
We also have the argument that Russian foreign policy is "fed by paranoia." According to mind.org.uk, "Paranoia is thinking and feeling like you are being threatened in some way, even if there is no evidence, or very little evidence, that you are."
But viewing apprehensions about NATO's enlargement as "paranoia" is unhelpful, since NATO is a military alliance that borders on Russia. If Russia is "paranoid" about the West, the same level of argumentation can be deployed re Western "paranoia" about Russia. Gets us nowhere.
Regarding the Kremlin's belief that "might is right," this is broadly correct but I dare say Russia is not unique in this regard. The precept reflects a predominant IR doctrine, namely realism.
But it's interesting to see that after depicting Russia as a paranoid menace intent on destroying the West, the report says that Russia's "substantive aims... are relatively limited" - i.e. to be seen as a "great power" and dominate its immediate neighbourhood.
Needless to say, I fully agree with this second paragraph pasted above, and I can't help but point out that there are serious contradictions between the two views of Russia, including in relation to how much of an "all-encompassing threat" it is perceived to be.
Amid all the excitement about Brexit & the Scottish referendum, I should just say that there is little in the report about either. The authors of the report are in fact pretty honest about not knowing what to make of the claims.
I kind of cringed when I read this bit in the report. This is about Russia's disinformation campaign. "You don't know what to believe" is a reasonable position to adopt in the face of contradictory information. It's called "critical thinking," and they teach it in the uni.
It is of course important to assess the relative veracity of different kinds of information. They also teach it in the uni. But, frankly, to argue that you help disinformation every time you question prevalent narratives is a form of dogma that I would strongly resent.
Going beyond this, I have to heartily endorse the report's findings about Russian oligarchs' presence in London. Tackling the "all-encompassing Russian threat" begins in the city, and the report is right to point out the failures of the National Crime Agency et al in this regard.
I am more agnostic about the report's argument that the UK should more or less treat Russia as an enemy for the foreseeable future because otherwise, its credibility would be undermined.
You might wonder whether, given the trajectory of UK-China relations, the Committee touched on the subject of China. Indeed! The Committee noted that it's difficult to single out Russia as a particularly grave threat to UK security. I agree here.
Finally, a word about expert witnesses. I should just mention that they included @Billbrowder and "Professor" Anne Applebaum, among others. Russia hands will know what this means, and, yes, I don't think it's a good lineup (thinking of the Committee's credibility here).
Overall, a good read. There's great stuff there btw on British operations in Russia, including gems about the difficulty of recruiting agents, the need to resort to "offensive cyber" against the Russians etc. All good stuff.
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