1/ I'm reading so much every week about the #TrumpCrisis it feels like I'm back in grad schools. I'm doing this b/c it's all data for my intellectual role: rabbi/sociologist/anthropologist/philosopher/etc
I use twitter for main updates & links (see this:)
I use twitter for main updates & links (see this:)
2/ There are many amateur scholars & sleuths working the #TrumpCrisis beat & it struck me to say 2 observations:
(a) I call them amateurs - even tho most are very skilled at this from their academic, legal, reporting etc careers - b/c the 'pros' are actual IC or law enforcement
(a) I call them amateurs - even tho most are very skilled at this from their academic, legal, reporting etc careers - b/c the 'pros' are actual IC or law enforcement
3/ This is crucial for me to understand as a consumer of their information: they are armchair analysts & must be treated that way. They remind me of sports "bloggers." Even the best of them (like SteelersDepot) know about 40% of relevant data. By definition
4/ In NFL analysis, bloggers can only use non-private info (game film, open practices) but the key info is - by def. - kept private/proprietary. They won't know real injury reports, the gamebook, the gameplan etc
It's all educated guesses & I judge qual. knowing those limits
It's all educated guesses & I judge qual. knowing those limits
5/ The best of these amateur analysts, thus, must keep their limitations in the forefront
Out of intellectual honesty, they need to admit: we know 40% but we do the best we can w/that info
And the best will wring every iota of data from that open info. That's why they're good.
Out of intellectual honesty, they need to admit: we know 40% but we do the best we can w/that info
And the best will wring every iota of data from that open info. That's why they're good.
6/ All common pitfall, however, is these guys can think their mastery of the 40% - a mastery which surpasses the novices (like me) - is actually the equivalent of possessing the 100% of data
Even if the coaches are dimwits, they just have more, crucial, info than any amateur
Even if the coaches are dimwits, they just have more, crucial, info than any amateur
7/ So even if I can argue that a given coach is 40% as good as the amateur would be w/the same info, knowing 100% is qualitatively different (even at a dimwit level) than being an expert on 40%
This sounds obvious, but its almost always violated by the amateurs in their bubbles
This sounds obvious, but its almost always violated by the amateurs in their bubbles
8/ The amateur twitter sleuths, many best-selling authors, are just not capable of knowing the full story and yet they all act as if they do.
An amateur who forgets they're an amateur is a special type of fool
But it's common to see for those whose hobbies are all-consuming
An amateur who forgets they're an amateur is a special type of fool
But it's common to see for those whose hobbies are all-consuming
9/ This leads to the second observation: all the sleuths seem to break off into ever-shifting factions. I can't tell who trusts whom, but there's almost always a feud going on
In this way, it feels so much like academia, except a reflection among functional non-experts
In this way, it feels so much like academia, except a reflection among functional non-experts
10/ I'm grateful for the work these people do, but I haven't even mentioned anyone's name b/c I definitely don't want to step in their feuds or insult their egos
If I would teach them a lesson, as someone with multiple graduate degrees, it would be (a) the "40% info" from above
If I would teach them a lesson, as someone with multiple graduate degrees, it would be (a) the "40% info" from above
11/ but (b) that collaboration and error are necessary parts of any intellectual endeavor. There's not one person in any of my fields that I can just accept wholeheartedly.
This goes even for my mentors (who I hold in the highest level of trust & authority)
This goes even for my mentors (who I hold in the highest level of trust & authority)
12/ Just out of principle, I need to listen to multiple people along with my mentors. Yeah, they often win out, but reading widely, broadly, deeply on a needed subject is the task of any honest scholar
It's what separates science from faith
It's what separates science from faith
