Thread by @Peters_Glen

One of the biggest problems with Border Carbon Adjustments (BCAs) is also the problem that is least discussed.

Equity.

@arvindpawan1 explains (plus many other issues)

technologyreview.com/2020/07/27/100…
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Whether it is the intention or not, BCAs have the effect of reducing output in developing countries.

That is, when rich countries apply a BCA, poor countries get lower GDP & rich countries get higher GDP. Typical! All BCA studies show this.

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BCAs are also against the spirit of the Paris Agreement.

The unique aspect of the PA was that countries would put forward NDCs, & other countries would accept them as sufficient. It is not a top-down Kyoto style agreement, it is a bottom-up style agreement.

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In Paris, rich countries implicitly accepted the NDCs of poor countries. Now rich countries want to “unaccept” the NDCs of poor countries to justify applying a BCA.

Hmmm? Isn’t that reneging on your deal?

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I imagine it would be justified to apply a BCA to a country that deliberately didn’t follow up on its NDC, or withdrew. USA is a candidate.

What about countries like Australia, that try & bend around the rules?

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Most of the “carbon leakage” people got concerned about has stopped growing. It was driven by China, & that stopped, like 10 years ago. The carbon leakage framing is so 2000s...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/20…
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There are definition issues people don't understand: policy-induced versus economically-driven?

Most carbon leakage is not driven by policy. Is the EU-ETS in 2005 what drove the increase in Chinese exports? No.

Policy induced leakage is small.

pnas.org/content/108/21…
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With all the talk of net-zero, just remember that BCAs are in any case a transition policy. Leakage will always be some sort of problem as rich countries mitigate faster than poor countries (BY DESIGN). That doesn’t mean you need a BCA, you just need to follow the plan...

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BCAs are so, so appealing. They suck people in so easy.

Go do some reading (or research it for 10+ years). BCAs are not easy, have loads of problems. Perhaps solvable, perhaps not.

An alternative? Stop beating around the bush, & put your efforts on reducing emissions...

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side note: I critiqued people for not wanting to discuss BCAs, but after 10+ years I have come around. We don’t have time to design fancy-pancy policy instruments. BCAs are into marginal policy.

The required reductions for 1.5-2°C make carbon leakage a minor issue...

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Loads of literature on BCAs. Here is a start, from 2012, which gives an overview of key modelling findings.
sciencedirect.com/journal/energy…

Loads of other literature on WTO issues, etc. Just note, this has been researched since the 1970s. There is not a new issue...

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