It's that time of the season again when Divestment talks during a bull run gathers momentum (with little results)
LIC IPO is back on the table with advisors being chosen. Fair enough!
A thread below on why LIC IPO is not going to be a cakewalk
(a) LIC is the largest #DII in India handling $500bn #investment portfolio. LIC act stipulates that all #receipts and payments need to be made out of that fund only. In case govt divest 10% stake (min stake required as per #SEBI regulations), who will do the corpus handling?
(b) LIC act stipulates that the insurer distribute 5% surplus p.a to GOI as #dividend. Most pvt insurers prefer higher ratio to shareholders. Any change in this ratio requires approval from both houses of #parliament. Even investors would insist on clarity before committing $
(c) LIC policyholders has #sovereign guarantee from the GOI and no claim can be rejected on the basis of capital adequacy. If this continues then either GOI show LIC as contingent #liability in their budget or capital base of LIC needs to be boosted before IPO.
(d) LIC has a market share of ~70% owing to its #network of agents. LIC employee union need to be assured that partial stake by GOI will not lead to sidelining of their #commissions or their role in the future.
Without these issues being ironed well before the investors are brought on board, i would take any news with a pinch of salt. The divestment talks may go around in circles till then!
Disc : Invested and recommended few pvt insurers in portfolio
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SEBI in a consultation paper has proposed direct delisting of PSU companies where public shareholding is more than 90% and MPS norms are not being met (74% within 3yrs of listing) due to weak business model, loss making entities, outdated tech or just not enough float.
It has been proposed to delist them with a 15% premium to the floor price (60 days VWAMP or highest price paid by PACs in 26w/52w volume weighted average price)
The requirement of seeking two-third approval from the public shareholders can be removed.
Many stocks with hyper inflated prices due to low float can fall into this category (ITI, FACT, KIOCL, HMT etc) and can be delisted under new norms in HCY26. Once the value is realized, it may be easier to sell their assets or just merge them with other PSU/Private entities.
Markets had an extremely smooth run-time in last 5 months, much ahead of everyone's expectations.
Older and wiser investors are unduly cautious while newer and bold investors with YOLO approach wants more.
Time for some investment lessons learned from past cycles 🧵
(1) Define your investment objectives and goals clearly.
Success in investment depends largely on clarity in investment O&G. Factors like growth, yield, income, risk, are dynamic & will keep on changing every year.
Investors must periodically re-evaluate objectives.
(2) Forming a solid investment team is critical to successful investment strategy.
Carefully assess the honesty, competence, and objective of those giving you investment advice & services.
DIY investors need to make sure they have sufficient time and skill set to execute.
A thread of the 10 best podcast episodes (& series) I listened to this year #2022inreview
PS : I use @Spotify as my platform, so hyperlinks are from there. In the case of the series, I have shared a link to the first episode.
This is across genres. RT for wider benefit.
(1) For over ~4hrs, @amitvarma and @BShrayana discuss the complexities of being a woman in India. Context is the latter's wonderfully written - "Desperately Seeking Shah Rukh" which is a cleverly disguised economics book talking about movies.
(2) Summarizing gist of the business is a forte of @bizbreakdowns and this one chronicling GE's dominance and decline is a treat, specially inputs coming from Josh Aguilar, @MorningstarInc analyst who has tracked the company closely for many yrs.
Certain business channels allowing ONLY SEBI registered analysts & advisors to come on their shows from NOW ON after all this brouhaha is just hogwash.
This should have been done always in the past but that's not how money is made on channels.
Eventually all business channels need to survive which means more hits and clicks across various social media platforms. So called finfluencers provided that on a platter, regulation be damned.
So now following the RA (2016) or RIA (2013) regulations smells of hypocricy.
Every finfluencer has been blantantly disregarding RA/RIA regulations for years in the name of 'only for educational purposes'.
Regulations are clear, if you want to talk about stocks across ANY platform, get a license from SEBI. But this has been rarely practiced.
Quite a lot of investors are worried about the FPIs dumping Indian equities and concluding that this is the prime reason for the ongoing correction in stock prices.
A 🧵 to understand details about FPIs buying and selling in financial markets before jumping to conclusions
(1) FPIs are NOT a uniform class of investors.
Some examples:
Pension funds - very long term horizon (multi-decades)
Hedge funds & AIF - very short term horizon (3-6m)
EM funds - buy/sell as basket including India
ETFs - MSCI, iShare EM, iShare Asia, FTSE
(1a) All these investors differ in Investment:
- Horizon
- Objectives
- Strategies
They rarely act in unison as the universe of investible stocks is also different.
To assume that all FPIs are selling at the same time violating the mandate & exiting India is bit overdramatic.