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Miles Beckett Profile picture
@mbeckett
Jul 31, 2020 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Alex, thanks for reminding me. Here's my Week 4 update! 1/4
Unfortunately, the national trend now clearly shows deaths rising. There is no need to segment the data by hot-spot states to see the trend. This is exactly as predicted. 2/5 Image
The purpose of my thread was to explain why the national data previously showed cases rising and deaths decreasing. I stand by my observation and I’m confident that the primary driver was Simpson’s paradox. Now, how about the number of deaths? 3/5
Deaths will continue to rise. Where will they end up? It’s anyone’s guess and it’s a dynamic situation. I applaud states like TX and AZ, for taking masks more seriously and rolling back their re-openings. This will have an impact on the death rate. 4/5
Re-reading my thread, I regret saying there was nothing we could do. Mandating masks, rolling back re-openings, and testing and contact tracing will help. I hope we can act rationally, especially when addressing new questions like re-opening schools. 5/5

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More from @mbeckett

Miles Beckett Profile picture
Jun 17, 2022
This is literally the point of the Senate
I’ll expand. I live in CA. I get the anger, and it does seem “unfair.” I also understand this was originally a slave state compromise, obviously not a good origin story. However, it serves to give smaller population states an equal voice.
This is a good thing, if your intent is to hold the US together as an entity (mine is). The US is very unique, most other countries have regions or areas or whatever, but very few (none?) have such separated “states” that still work together as a federal entity.
Read 5 tweets
Miles Beckett Profile picture
Feb 14, 2021
Turning 43 this weekend. Hitting harder than 40. Bittersweet like much in life these days. Here’s a few things I’ve learned in my 40+ years. Thread 1/10👇🏼
“You’ll never predict where life will take you. Your wildest expectations aren’t wild enough.” I’ve been on the cover of Wired, lost out on millions, made millions, been #1 on YouTube, produced hits and flops. 2/10
Raised millions, bought out VCs, nearly gone bankrupt, 10x’d investor money, made friends, lost friends, and probably made some enemies. Done shots with celebrities, drank Bud at dive bars, partied VIP at the most exclusive clubs, and stayed in $10 hotels. 3/10
Read 11 tweets
Miles Beckett Profile picture
Jan 24, 2021
This is not good
Viruses mutate, sometimes those mutations make them more infectious, more deadly, or different enough that our immune system sees it as “new.” Theses COVID mutations fit into several of these buckets.
The “UK variant” b117 is more infectious, most likely more deadly, and unknown if the vaccine will be less effective (it probably will be equally effective.
Read 5 tweets
Miles Beckett Profile picture
Jul 30, 2020
Should we send our kids back to school? The debate has taken on a hysterical tone, divided largely along party lines. Why are we disagreeing so much? Simply put, our brains are defective. Don’t believe me? Let’s dive in 1/21 #COVID19 #ThursdayThoughts
First, let’s understand how our brains evolved. It’s a mess. Evolution stacks system upon system, often with competing agendas. We are literally of two minds. Our so-called “lizard brain,” the amygdala, and our neocortex, a recently evolved structure found only in mammals. 2/21
Our amygdala is an old structure, appearing 450 million years ago. It regulates emotion. In fact, humans without a functioning amygdala are fearless. The neocortex is all about logic. It’s responsible for mathematics and the wonders of science. See how they might disagree? 3/21
Read 21 tweets
Miles Beckett Profile picture
Jul 2, 2020
The trillion dollar question. Why are COVID cases increasing while deaths are decreasing? The answer is simple. It's called Simpson's paradox and it's the result of incorrectly pooling data and arriving at a false conclusion. A thread 1/9 #COVID19 #ThursdayThoughts
2/9 If you lump the data and look at the US as a whole, you'll observe: Cases are increasing, positivity rate is increasing, hospitalizations are increasing, and deaths are decreasing. Until recently, it also looked liked hospitalizations were decreasing and positivity was flat.
3/9 It would be rational to come to the following conclusions. "Young people are getting it now, not old people." "We've gotten better at treating it, the death rate has fallen." "We're testing more people, so we're seeing more cases." Twitter is awash with these.
Read 15 tweets
Miles Beckett Profile picture
May 9, 2020
1/4 The thing that boggles my mind is people posting data like this as “proof” that we overreacted, that we should re-open, that this whole thing is basically a liberal “hoax.”
2/4 This data is likely accurate, we’re seeing more and more randomized population-based antibody testing showing far more are infected than previously “thought” (although I’d argue that many people, myself included, have thought this for a long time).
3/4 This data is positive news, it means we’ll get to herd immunity faster. But it just means it’s MORE infectious and LESS deadly. It doesn’t mean that it’s simply “not a big deal” or “just the flu.”
Read 4 tweets

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