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Here are the major 00z global models and their ensembles. #Isaias will likely stay just off the SE FL coast, although a brief landfall of the center still cant be ruled out. I think landfall will likely be between Cape Romain SC and Cape Fear, NC. I have shifted my track (1/4)
a bit west with landfall of #Isaias near the NC/SC border, I am still a bit NE of the model consensus at the moment. With a track up the NC coastal plain, Tidewater/Delmarva/NE Coast. It does looks more likely that the center will stay mostly onshore on its ride NE. (2/4)
As far as intensity. #Isaias has not been a easy storm to forecast intensity wise. I would imagine little strengthening today as it is close to the coast. There could be a window to re-attain cat 1 strength tomorrow over the ocean before landfall Monday night. (3/4)
Rain will be the biggest deal from this anyway with a swath of 3-6 inches of rain and locally more up the coast. With winds gusting to tropical storm strength #Isaias (4/4)
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