Thread by @BillHanage

Some thoughts on early to mid pandemic dynamics in the US and the UK

Yesterday I criticized the criticism in this (meta!). But it is worth pointing out that this is after the UK gleefully (irresponsibly?) opened pubs on the 4th of July weekend.

theguardian.com/world/2020/aug… 1/n

The UK and the US offer similar models of pandemic response. Both are bad.

In both, leaders have sought to minimize the consequence of the pandemic, suggesting it will go away ‘magically’ or that normality will be resumed ‘by Christmas’. Both have been mugged by the virus 2/n

Let us start with the US which I know best. We have had months of case counts rising which were predictably followed by deaths. And I do mean predictably look at this (quoting me, predicting it )

msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-… 3/n

And here we are. Hospitals overwhelmed, deaths climbing if hopefully plateauing but wait! Here comes the mid west! It is not surprising. But still depressing nymag.com/intelligencer/… 4/nl

In the absence of any coherent federal response to what’s reasonably the most acute global public health emergency in a century, what do you do? We are relying on our local public health depts. I really hope they get better funded after this 5/n (not holding my breath)

There is a characteristic pattern here. The authorities, Tony Fauci and Dr Birx say the reality cnn.com/world/live-new…. 6/n

And then... cnbc.com/2020/07/27/tru… seriously. It's the opposite of how to responsibly handle an emergency. And the opposite of all the good planning @CDCgov did in the past 7/n

Now my dear, possibly smug British followers... in the UK another populist leader asserts it will be over by christmas (ouch! Unfortunate choice of words) theworldwar.org/explore/exhibi… 8/n

Then that it’s other countries’ fault theguardian.com/world/live/202… 9/n

(he says in parentheses theguardian.com/travel/2020/ju… aren't good either) 10/n

Then that is actually the fault of the people that the govt is supposed to represent and supposed to lead and guide through a public health disaster for not 'following the rules' theguardian.com/world/2020/jul… 11/n

I’ve heard smart folks like @Freedland comment that the only reason the UK gov has gotten away with this is that the US is worse. No the US is just bigger, which provides a larger canvas for its unfolding incompetence (some of which reflects deep set govt structures) 12/n

I am not angry with the UK govt for changing course. I am angry for the suggestion that this was not predictable, when it was 13/n

While I am angry with the Trump administration for its failures in pandemic response up to now. I would much rather see some sort of act got together sooner rather than never. Lives do literally depend upon it 14/end