(1) US #COVID19 Confirmed Cases per Capita by Region thru August 2, 2020
South and West showing signs of slow recovery.
Midwest may have reached apex.
Northeast may have ticked up.
South and West showing signs of slow recovery.
Midwest may have reached apex.
Northeast may have ticked up.
(2) US #COVID19 Deaths per Capita by Region thru August 2, 2020
South still rising but may be approaching an apex.
West also rising. Midwest rising slightly.
Northeast continues to decline.
Note: South and West currently have a backlog and are notorious undercounters.
South still rising but may be approaching an apex.
West also rising. Midwest rising slightly.
Northeast continues to decline.
Note: South and West currently have a backlog and are notorious undercounters.
(3) Largest States in South & West have large Undercounts in latest Excess Natural Deaths analysis:
South Death counts have been ~2X the reported numbers: Texas (1.98X), Florida (1.88X)
West Death counts also ~2X the reported numbers: Arizona (2.11X), California (1.68X)
South Death counts have been ~2X the reported numbers: Texas (1.98X), Florida (1.88X)
West Death counts also ~2X the reported numbers: Arizona (2.11X), California (1.68X)
(4) New York (1.38X) and New Jersey (1.42X) also had a significant undercounts, but a much lower percent of their total deaths.
Higher Southern and Western undercount explains a 1.4X increase in CFR.
Higher Southern and Western undercount explains a 1.4X increase in CFR.
(5) Remaining decrease in recent Case Fatality Rates significantly due to increased testing surveillance.
In New York, average Infection-to-Case (I/C) Ratio of 8X to 10X seen during NY antibody study.
Current I/C ratio estimate is 4X: 2X among older adults, 5X among younger.
In New York, average Infection-to-Case (I/C) Ratio of 8X to 10X seen during NY antibody study.
Current I/C ratio estimate is 4X: 2X among older adults, 5X among younger.
(6) SITREP Bottom Line:
US #COVID19 Cases in South and West suggest we have passed the apex for the current outbreak.
Midwest may also have reached an apex.
Northeast stayed clear of second outbreak.
US #COVID19 Cases in South and West suggest we have passed the apex for the current outbreak.
Midwest may also have reached an apex.
Northeast stayed clear of second outbreak.
(7) US #COVID19 Deaths ~1,100 per day and still rising, but may reach apex soon if case trend is real.
Earlier Peak in Northeast undercounted by 1.4X (so 2,200 is really 3,080). Current Undercount likely around 2X (so 1,100 is really 2,200).
Earlier Peak in Northeast undercounted by 1.4X (so 2,200 is really 3,080). Current Undercount likely around 2X (so 1,100 is really 2,200).
(8) Credits:
91-divoc.com
@CDCgov
@JHUSystems
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vi…
US Daily Tests (upper left), Cases (upper right), Hospitals (lower left) and Deaths (lower right) by region.
91-divoc.com
@CDCgov
@JHUSystems
91-divoc.com/pages/covid-vi…
US Daily Tests (upper left), Cases (upper right), Hospitals (lower left) and Deaths (lower right) by region.
(9) Here's an estimate of the Actual US Daily COVID-19 Death counts over time, based on estimated undercount ratios calculated from the CDC "Counts of Deaths by State and Select Causes" dataset.
