Top 2 stocks 23.56% of the Nifty. Top 3 equal to 31.12% and Top 5 equal to 42.83%.Top 20 Stocks are 79.26% of the Index. Lower than the peak of 80.4% .
Top 10 Stocks are 62.6% of the Index. All time High Concentration.
Banking and Financials continues to see weight drop from 40% to 33.16% .
Reliance is the largest weight at 14%. Last 23 stocks weight combined now lesser than Reliance.28 out of the Nifty50 stocks have a weight of less than 1%
HDFC and HDFC Bank at 16.15% and 14% Reliance makes it a combined 30% !!IT at 16.11% and Reliance at 14% + Bharti Airtel at 2.85% is now equal to Financial Services.
Pharma has gone up from 2.15% to 3.18%
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Multi-Year Range Breakouts in Nifty50 Stocks but Nifty50 Making Lower Tops –What to Do ?
Apart from that
1) Global Indices – US and Europe near all time highs but India continues to struggle and making lower tops.
2) Stocks in Same Sector – One at all time high the other one at 30% drawdown.
3) What to trust the Breakout Moves or Breakdown Moves ?
This creates a dilemma for a Trader – To trust the Breakout/Breakdown or Not ?
Now lets c the Charts
The Struggling Nifty50
Positive divergences on new lows.
Still in lower tops.
Last major swing highs at 24200.
Swing lows at 22800.
Every big positive candle does not see any follow up action over next 1-3 sessions. Wait for this to change.
#Retail Inflows continue to be strong but Sebi categorization of Stocks > 33k cr Mkt cap being considered Midcap has led to over-ownership and overvaluation in the Top Midcap & Smallcap ( > 20k cr )
Data from Monarch AIF Note.
1) Price CAGR >> Earnings CAGR
Nifty50 and Nifty500 have moved inline with earnings cagr.
NiftyMidcap 100 has seen max re-rating. A price cagr of 27.3% against 11.7% earnings.
2) Concentrated Flows
Mid + Small + Thematic = 55-60% share of MF pure equity net inflows in CY23 and CY24