In his 1814 book "A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities" in which he formulates the classical interpretation of probability and the principle of indifference, Pierre Simon marquis de Laplace has also got a chapter on the role of probabilities in court decisions. Image
In another chapter (Des illusions dans l'estimation des Probabilités) he refers to probability illusions. Almost 2 centuries prior to Kahneman and Tversky! #Laplace Image
Here #Laplace describes the gambler's fallacy Image
And here #Laplace refers to the hot hand fallacy ImageImage
And continues with the base-rate fallacy and the insensitivity to sample size bias (which Kahneman calls conservatism) #Laplace ImageImage
"We are so far from knowing all the agents of nature and their diverse modes of action that it would not be philosophical to deny phenomena solely because they are inexplicable in the actual state of our knowledge. ... Image
....But we ought to examine them with an attention all the more scrupulous as it appears more difficult to admit them."

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More from @cubic_logic

28 Mar 19
Two series. Find which one is a random walk.
See series on the tweet above. Which one is a random walk?
And these are the auto-correlation estimates for both series (above) as well as of their first differences (below)

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