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في حين أن معظم دول المنطقة تمكنت من السيطرة على إنتشار فيروس #كورونا المتجدد، إلا أن إنتشاره يزداد سوءًا في #لبنان حيث ازدادت نسبة الحالات النشطة بشكل كبير منذ الأسبوع الأول من شهر تموز، إلى 63.3٪ من إجمالي الحالات حالياً مقارنة بـ 33.3٪ في جميع أنحاء العالم. @mophleb @WHOLebanon
مع الارتفاع الحاد للحالات الجديدة على مدى الأسابيع الأربعة الماضية، كانت النسبة المئوية للحالات النشطة تزداد مما يشير إلى تحمل النظام الصحي اعباء إضافية تفوق قدرته الحالية.
حالياً, هناك 3202 حالة #كورونا نشطة. كان متوسط ​​النسبة المئوية للحالات الحرجة 4٪ في شهر تموز. إذا استمر ذلك ، فسيتم شغل 260 سريرًا متاحًا من وحدات العناية المركزة في مستشفياتنا بالكامل بمجرد أن يكون لدينا 6500 حالة نشطة ، والتي يمكن أن تحدث قبل نهاية شهر آب.
ماذا يمكننا أن نفعل؟
1⃣ فرض أقنعة الوجه في جميع الأماكن العامة
2⃣ فرض الحجر الصحي لمدة 14 يومًا لجميع المسافرين
3⃣ حظر كامل لجميع التجمعات الكبيرة
4⃣ تثقيف المجتمع حول فيروس #كورونا وتبعاته على الصحة العامة
5⃣ التواصل المستمر والشفاف بين الهيئات والمؤسسات الصحية والمواطنين
@thehealthnerds
@DRM_Lebanon
@WHOLebanon
@mophleb
@thethreadshop unroll plz. thanks
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More from @Fatima_AlSayah see all

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Fatima Al Sayah
@Fatima_AlSayah
1/4 While most countries in the region are getting #COVID19 under control, the outbreak is worsening in #Lebanon: % of active cases has dramatically ⬆️ since the 1st wk of July, currently at 63.3% of total cases compared to 33.3% worldwide.
@mophleb @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
2/4 With the sharp surge of new cases over the last 4 weeks, the % of active cases has been increasing signalling a potential overload of the health system.
3/4 Currently, there are 3202 active #COVID19 cases. The average % of critical cases was 4% in July. If this continues, the available 260 ICU beds in our hospitals will be fully occupied once we have 6500 active cases, which could happen before the end of August.
Read 5 tweets
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Fatima Al Sayah
@Fatima_AlSayah
COVID-19 in Lebanon🇱🇧: What does the age distribution of confirmed cases tell us about under-reporting of cases?
A comparison with South Korea 🇰🇷 China 🇨🇳 & Italy 🇮🇹
@mophleb @DRM_Lebanon @WHOLebanon @thehealthnerds
#Lebanon #COVID19 #healthNERDS
1/ Age is an important factor not only because older people may have diminished immune function, but also because chronic conditions like cardiovascular disease & diabetes (key risk factors for worse outcomes in COVID-19) are much more prevalent in those over 50 years old.
2/ As of April 11:
Lebanon had a total of 630 cases |20 deaths (CFR= 3.2%)
South Korea had a total of 10,480 cases | 211 deaths (CFR= 2.0%)
China had a total of 82,800 cases | 3,339 deaths (CFR= 2.3%)
Italy had a total of 152,300 cases | 19,500 deaths (CFR= 12.5%)
Read 22 tweets
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Fatima Al Sayah
@Fatima_AlSayah
@mophleb @DRM_Lebanon @WHOLebanon and for those -prematurely- celebrating the containment of COVID19 in Lebanon 🇱🇧; check this out please 👇

#Lebanon #COVID19 #healthNERDS
@thehealthnerds
1/ The only certain # we currently have is the total # of deaths. As shown in previous thread & based on an approach that is used in other countries, you can estimate the “potential” # of cases that we should have in order to have 19 deaths on April 7.
2/ How to do this?
Examine different case fatality ratios (CFRs): 1%, 2.5%, 5%
Examine different times to death: 17 days & 10 days
# of deaths on April 7 = 19
Calculate potential # of cases based on different growth rates (doubling time: 8 days, 10 days)
Read 14 tweets

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