Lebanon had a total of 630 cases |20 deaths (CFR= 3.2%)
South Korea had a total of 10,480 cases | 211 deaths (CFR= 2.0%)
China had a total of 82,800 cases | 3,339 deaths (CFR= 2.3%)
Italy had a total of 152,300 cases | 19,500 deaths (CFR= 12.5%)
-Age of infected individuals
-Health condition of infected individuals
-Availability & access to needed healthcare
CFR is not constant; the only stable CFR can be calculated when the outbreaks ends.
Let’s examine age distribution in Lebanon vs. South Korea, China, and Italy.
The short answer is yes.
If VF(T|B) < 1, then T (Lebanon) has a younger population and it should result in a lower CFR compared to B.
VF (Leb|South Korea) = 0.52
VF (Leb|China) = 0.70
VF (Leb|Italy) = 0.37
In all cases the VF is < 1, so the CFR in Lebanon (based on our younger population) should be lower than these countries.
- Lebanon has more people with chronic conditions
- Under-reporting of total cases due to limited testing
Let’s check out the prevalence of chronic conditions in these countries
If # of cases is under-reported (i.e., smaller), the CFR will be higher.
Of course other factors such as access to care, quality of care, timeliness of seeking care matter. Currently, these factors do not seem to be an issue in Lebanon.