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🚨Biosecurity experts ran dozens of pandemic war-games to prep for this crisis.

My NEW feature w/@jefftollef asks what went wrong.

They depicted #coronavirus, leaky travel bans, PPE shortages, vaccine scrambles, battles btwn leaders. But not Trump. nature.com/articles/d4158…
We spoke with researchers who ran simulations like Dark Winter, Atlantic Storm, Crimson Contagion, Clade X, Event 201. They foresaw a lot of problems happening now. But most thought we were better than anywhere else because of technological capacity, medical & science excellence.
As a long-time government researcher told me: "You need gas in the engine and the brakes to work, but if the driver doesn't want to use the car, you're not going anywhere." nature.com/articles/d4158…
The worst fumble was that the US didn't act fast in 2020. Trump posted 4 reassuring tweets on coronavirus in the last 2 weeks of Jan but >40 on the impeachment hearings & defeating the Dems.

"You can't fart around for weeks," as @MorrisonCSIS says. The US farted.
Our feature on pandemic 'war games' is covered in this podcast #Coronapod @NaturePodcast. Biosecurity expert @T_Inglesby speaks about the actions he was pushing the US government to take in January to protect against #COVID19 & also about his frustration. nature.com/articles/d4158…
Highly recommend following our sources for this story because they are some of the most qualified to discuss #COVID19. @JenniferNuzzo @T_Inglesby @BethCameron_DC @MorrisonCSIS @JeremyKonyndyk @DrTomFrieden @TomBollyky @RyanMorhard @CEPIvaccines @gatesfoundation @JohnsHopkinsSPH
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Amy Maxmen
@amymaxmen
I spent months in SierraLeone during the biggest #Ebola outbreak in history & I've just caught up with doctors I met who are now fighting #coronavirus. Lots of interesting comparisons to that outbreak -- and to the USA -- in my latest piece @NatureNews. nature.com/articles/d4158…
Some African researchers I talked w/were surprised that the CDC—so helpful during #Ebola—seems sorta powerless in the US. “I was shocked to see the US struggling to understand what contact tracing is, to organize a response, to put in place risk communication,” said @NyenswahG.
Another twist is that because many cases are mild or asymptomatic due to the young population in Liberia, SierraLeone & Guinea (3% of people >65), a lot of people might be taking this less seriously than public health authorities wish. (Btw this photo is worth 1000 words.)
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Amy Maxmen
@amymaxmen
It's unreasonable to expect perfection & I'm tired of that excuse for inaction. In March, health depts in cities w/ <200 cases told me it was too late for contact-tracing. And this is part of the reason why we STILL don't really know how Covid spreads outside of the homes (1/3).
If people don't want to reveal their information, that means health departments & contact tracing groups need to find solutions by talking with actual people and social scientists. A good start is making sure callers are identified, and that they give people helpful information.
Also, it takes time to get the word out to communities, to hire & train tracers, to establish networks with health departments & groups that support quarantining & isolation. So it's unreasonable to expect it to make a dent immediately, but the only way to start is to start.
Read 3 tweets
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Amy Maxmen
@amymaxmen
NEW results out of San Francisco. @Color tested 30,000 people who signed up. About 300 (1.3%) were positive. Out of those:
-30% asymptomatic when tested
-37% cough
-32% headache
-12% fever

THUS:Screening for a fever at workplaces, restaurants, airports isn't very effective (1/2)
And for scientists (I hear you) saying that the Covid disparity is due to biological differences in race rather than systemic inequities, consider:
-4.3% of Latinx tested were positive
-.9% of Black people tested were +
-.4% white people tested were +
-.6% Asians tested were +
The San Fran data from @Color is here: color.com/new-covid-19-t…
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