#GOLD Thread 1/8
Data of 958 weekly close from Apr 2002 to Aug 2020 analysed. (18 years, 958 Wks)
Of 958 Wk, only 44 Weeks have given + / - 5% move in #GOLD
Plotted Dow Jones move 4 same week as +/- 5% move in #GOLD
Data as below.
@DEVENDRACHATUR1
Data of 958 weekly close from Apr 2002 to Aug 2020 analysed. (18 years, 958 Wks)
Of 958 Wk, only 44 Weeks have given + / - 5% move in #GOLD
Plotted Dow Jones move 4 same week as +/- 5% move in #GOLD
Data as below.
@DEVENDRACHATUR1
2/8
Observations:
1)Out of 43 times, 11 times in 2008, 5-6 times in 2007 /09/13
2)#EPIC2020, happened 4 times already, this week potential ? 2025 ?
3)Dow and Gold hv been same direction of move for 23 times & opposite direction 20 times of the 43 outcomes. NO trend.
Observations:
1)Out of 43 times, 11 times in 2008, 5-6 times in 2007 /09/13
2)#EPIC2020, happened 4 times already, this week potential ? 2025 ?
3)Dow and Gold hv been same direction of move for 23 times & opposite direction 20 times of the 43 outcomes. NO trend.
3/8
4)Years of +/- 5% moves - All Crises Years
Overall view based on below stats/ facts:
Year 1980 high of GOLD $ 800 (1979 to 1980 was 100% gain from $ 400 to $ 800)
(FED BS / US GDP was ~10% of 1980 to 2008)
2008 high was $ 800 (back after 28 years)
2011 high was $ 1930
4)Years of +/- 5% moves - All Crises Years
Overall view based on below stats/ facts:
Year 1980 high of GOLD $ 800 (1979 to 1980 was 100% gain from $ 400 to $ 800)
(FED BS / US GDP was ~10% of 1980 to 2008)
2008 high was $ 800 (back after 28 years)
2011 high was $ 1930
4/8
(FED BS / US GDP was ~20% in 2011/12) (FED BS went from 0.5 Trillion to 2.25 Trillion)
2020 high 1930 taken out (back after 9 years)
FED BS / GDP ~35% (FED BS went to 3.5 Trillion to 7.3 Trillion)
(FED BS / US GDP was ~20% in 2011/12) (FED BS went from 0.5 Trillion to 2.25 Trillion)
2020 high 1930 taken out (back after 9 years)
FED BS / GDP ~35% (FED BS went to 3.5 Trillion to 7.3 Trillion)
5/8
Possibilities:
1)Gold can be at least $ 4000 - $ 5000 in time to come if same history playbook repeats.
2)Key difference from history is Interest rate is ZERO which is UNIQUE to today ? Impact of that on any financial asset / liability is anybody’s guess ?
Possibilities:
1)Gold can be at least $ 4000 - $ 5000 in time to come if same history playbook repeats.
2)Key difference from history is Interest rate is ZERO which is UNIQUE to today ? Impact of that on any financial asset / liability is anybody’s guess ?
6/8
3)Death of MMT? FOR SURE ! It’s a matter of when versus whether it will die now?
4)Is d abv sustainable? Yes, USA having $ as Reserve Curr, zero rate, largest economy & military, space, internet, technology, far ahead of RestofWorld, it is possible to repeat the history!
3)Death of MMT? FOR SURE ! It’s a matter of when versus whether it will die now?
4)Is d abv sustainable? Yes, USA having $ as Reserve Curr, zero rate, largest economy & military, space, internet, technology, far ahead of RestofWorld, it is possible to repeat the history!
7/8
5)While trend in 2-3 years is upwards, rough and bumpy ride is guaranteed. Need stoned heart and frozen stomach to handle this Volatality - GOLD FLASHBACK 2005-2011
Jan 05 - $410 (1985 - 20 YR lvl)
May 06 - 723 (+76%)
Oct 06 - 560 (-23%)
5)While trend in 2-3 years is upwards, rough and bumpy ride is guaranteed. Need stoned heart and frozen stomach to handle this Volatality - GOLD FLASHBACK 2005-2011
Jan 05 - $410 (1985 - 20 YR lvl)
May 06 - 723 (+76%)
Oct 06 - 560 (-23%)
8/8
Sep 07 - 745 (+33%)
Mar 08 - 1014 (+36%)
Oct 08 - 681 (-33%)
TARP - 750 Bn
Aug 09 - 980 (+18%)
Dec 09 - 1225 (+25%)
Dec 10 - 1431(+17%)
Aug 11 - 1909 (+33%)
June 13 - 1225 (-36%)
End of Thread... @vinitrahtod
Sep 07 - 745 (+33%)
Mar 08 - 1014 (+36%)
Oct 08 - 681 (-33%)
TARP - 750 Bn
Aug 09 - 980 (+18%)
Dec 09 - 1225 (+25%)
Dec 10 - 1431(+17%)
Aug 11 - 1909 (+33%)
June 13 - 1225 (-36%)
End of Thread... @vinitrahtod
Add to GOLD thread based on Q's recd:
Observatn:
1) Gold +ve YTD returns in 15 out of 20 years. Out of 5 -ve yrs, 3 years (2000, 2014,2018 : -5%, -1%, -2%)
2) Thr4 only 2 big -ve YTD years.
2013 : -31%
2015: -10%
Both years were exceptional. EM FxCrises!
@DEVENDRACHATUR1
Observatn:
1) Gold +ve YTD returns in 15 out of 20 years. Out of 5 -ve yrs, 3 years (2000, 2014,2018 : -5%, -1%, -2%)
2) Thr4 only 2 big -ve YTD years.
2013 : -31%
2015: -10%
Both years were exceptional. EM FxCrises!
@DEVENDRACHATUR1
3) 20 year average annual return 11%. This is $ Return, Return in INR and Other World Currency terms will be much higher!
4) M pleasantly Surprised ! Wonder why not published much by mainstream Fin Pundits!
5) Gold is way better than Fixed Deposits, Tax benefit too!
End. TY
4) M pleasantly Surprised ! Wonder why not published much by mainstream Fin Pundits!
5) Gold is way better than Fixed Deposits, Tax benefit too!
End. TY
2020 Gold YTD return at 30% is highest ever yearly return in 20 Years ?
Are we done for the year ?
Or will #EPIC2020 break the record ?
@vinitrahtod
Are we done for the year ?
Or will #EPIC2020 break the record ?
@vinitrahtod
