Food for thought:
1. SVB will be taken care. It's a 20-30 Bn loss Bill at best..

2. Bigger questions to figure:

2a. How will US govt fund 4-5% interest rate on $31T debt ?

2b. Who has absorbed/un/accounted MTM loss on $31T debt in last 9 months? How many r swimming naked? 2c. FED Res equity will turn negative due to losses on its bond portfolio. Powell said FED can pay bills with negative equity/have negative income.. (aisi deewangi dekhi nahi moment 🤣)

3. Can FED have negative equity, it's a Central Bank of $ world's reserve currency

1/n
Thread on Intermarket Relationship 1999-2021

Historical Correlation between #US30 #DowJones, #US100 #Nasdaq, #Gold #XAUUSD, #Brent #Crude, #copper #US10Y

1. US 30 / US 100 vs US 10Y

US30 / US100 was at ~2 multiple in 2000 and it is now at same level in 2021 2/n

Above chart shows that sole factor responsible for this anomaly is US 10Y rates
Rates were kept for real economy to recover, generation of jobs etc. however it has clearly backfired.
US Tech definitely does not deserve this kind of valuation

#USDINR
Thread..

Pros:
1. Multifold Inflows ~= Outflows (of Tr Def & CA def).
2. RBI appetite for reserves reducing
3. Weak DXY
4. Hand of God levels (73-74)

Cons:
1. Crude 73+
2. Inflation > 6% yet MPC stance accommodative
3. GDP growth 🤞 (8-9% over 2020 which is ~ to 2019) 4. Tr def, CA def.
5. Fiscal deficit
6. Rising commodity prices headwind for govt spending

Thoughts:
1. Reserves of over $150 Bn added within 24m
2. Avg cost 72-73
3. Appreciation contained, however one off one time Depn is tolerated
4. inflation counter by keeping ₹ stable?

Thread on #Scam1992 web series on #HarshadMehta (HM) based on book by Sucheta Dalal.
23 April 1992

HM had repaid 500 crs to SBI. The article ruined it.
It was a crime to use bank funds for buying stocks definately and money was taken frm NHB to pay SBI.

Want 2ask this openly: 1) Isn't the same thing happening today formally?
2) Public money through MF / LIC / PF / ETF is going into hyper inflated overvalued equity markets ?

2) offcourse it is now official and as per rules. Mutual funds sahi hai #₹$€

@DEVENDRACHATUR1 @iKawachii @dhavalgandhi007 Absolutely agree sir. at this juncture its important to pen down critical points due to which our country is in economic mess in 2020 also. Who is responsible for them, people are smart enough to judge.

1) Population explosion for Popular Vote from states / castes, etc.
1/n @DEVENDRACHATUR1 @iKawachii @dhavalgandhi007 2/n

2) Unchecked immigrants from Bangladesh, Nepal, Assam, other M countries.

3) Increase in % share of Non-Hindu Population

4) Definition of Securalism altered!

5) No Education No Literacy focus. Unproductive population.

6) Nepotism

#GOLD Thread 1/8
Data of 958 weekly close from Apr 2002 to Aug 2020 analysed. (18 years, 958 Wks)
Of 958 Wk, only 44 Weeks have given + / - 5% move in #GOLD
Plotted Dow Jones move 4 same week as +/- 5% move in #GOLD

Data as below.

@DEVENDRACHATUR1 2/8
Observations:
1)Out of 43 times, 11 times in 2008, 5-6 times in 2007 /09/13

2)#EPIC2020, happened 4 times already, this week potential ? 2025 ?

3)Dow and Gold hv been same direction of move for 23 times & opposite direction 20 times of the 43 outcomes. NO trend.