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#Nature How the COVID-19 pandemic might play out in 2021 and beyond. This coronavirus is here for the long haul — here’s what scientists predict for the next months and years.…
COVID-19 is here to stay, but future depends on a lot of unknowns.
"If immunity to the virus lasts less than a year, for example, similar to other human coronaviruses in circulation, there could be annual surges in COVID-19 infections through to 2025 and beyond. But there is hopeful news as lockdowns ease."
"If 50–65% of people are cautious in public, then stepping down social-distancing measures every 80 days could help to prevent further infection peaks over the next two years. We’re going to need to change the culture of how we interact with other people."
"Finding the balance between what actually is a strategy that people will tolerate, and what strategy will contain an outbreak, is really important. Tracing 80% of contacts could be near-impossible to achieve in regions still grappling with thousands of new infections a week."
"In future, SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks could arrive in waves every winter. It remains unknown whether infection with other human coronaviruses can offer any protection against SARS-CoV-2. To end the pandemic, people must build up sufficient immunity through infections or a vaccine."
"Researchers know little so far about how long SARS-CoV-2 immunity lasts. For a clear answer on immunity, researchers will need to follow a large number of people over a long time. If the virus induces short-term immunity then people can become reinfected in annual outbreaks."
"There is one thing that every country, city and community touched by the pandemic has in common. There is so much we still don’t know about this virus. Until we have better data, we’re just going to have a lot of uncertainty."
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