1) On the coronavirus talks, everything on Capitol Hill is truly very simple: It’s about the math. It’s about the math. It’s about the math.
2) The coronavirus bill talks are utterly stalled because the legislative math just does not work in the House and Senate – and with the administration.
3) The only thing that’s moved on Capitol Hill on this front was the $3 trillion package House Democrats crafted in May. But that measure couldn’t get through the Senate nor become law. It’s unclear if much of anything could pass right now anywhere.
4) The proper cocktail of spending – mixed with how many lawmakers on both sides could vote for a bill – simply does not work at all right now.
That could change. But they are stalled.
That could change. But they are stalled.
5) As we always said, Democrats are going to be key to crafting this package. McConnell told colleague Mike Emanuel earlier this week he had 15 to 20 Republicans who were unwilling to support any other measures which piled on additional debt. So, they need Democratic votes.
6) Fox reported last week that the highest the administration believes it can go on a coronavirus bill is $1.5 to $1.7 trillion
7) Pelosi indicated today. she was prepared to drop her requirement of a $3 trillion-plus bill to something in the $2 trillion range. But administration negotiators say that was still too high. Then, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said Democrats couldn’t go that low.
8) Part of that is based on policy. But most of that is about the math. The math of how many votes any package can command on the floors of the House or Senate.
9) Remember that Democrats are key to the entire package. Some Senate Republicans will reject practically anything out of hand. But the Democrats may only be able to drop down $2 trillion before there is attrition for votes on their side of the aisle.
10) “The House doesn’t have the votes to go south of $2 trillion,” said Schumer. “The Senate Democrats (don’t have) votes below $2 trillion. That’s what compromise is all about.”
11) The sides are locked in. But, it should have been expected that Meadows and Mnuchin would have to be at loggerheads with Pelosi and Schumer for a while anyway.
12) This would be necessary – even in a best case scenario – to demonstrate to President Trump that they’re not being rolled by Democrats. Moreover, Pelosi and Schumer - but especially Pelosi – must show House liberals they’re not willing to bend, either.
13) The stalemate also gives the President the chance to implement an executive order or two and bypass Congress. That’s not to say that what’s happening is staged parliamentary performance art.
14) But the sides definitely have to go through some machinations if (if) there ever is to be an agreement on a bill of this magnitude. And there are deep, deep divisions. A bill may never come together under these circumstances
