1/ I was trying to comfort a friend abt our situation b/c they were rightfully terrified that the US could turn into what's happening in Belarus right now (nytimes.com/2020/08/10/wor…)
There's a fine line b/w being aware & alert vs paralyzed with despair. Sadly, it's very hard to do
There's a fine line b/w being aware & alert vs paralyzed with despair. Sadly, it's very hard to do
2/ Here is the litany of comforts I described about why I feel Trump (ym'sh) is likely to be defeated by Biden in the upcoming election.
(a) DJT incompetence
(b) October Surprises
(c) DJT Health
(d) Will of the People
(a) DJT incompetence
(b) October Surprises
(c) DJT Health
(d) Will of the People
3/ (A) DJT Incompetence: this has been clear from the start. The bad guys are terrible at being evil. The Ukraine Plot was stupid & it was foiled, leading to impeachment
The only reason DJT has been 'successful' in anything has been the well-oiled evil machine of current GOP
The only reason DJT has been 'successful' in anything has been the well-oiled evil machine of current GOP
4/ (a cont.) The machine:
FoxNews as sole info for 40% of ppl
White Supremacist Christian Movements
SCOTUS stacked w/partisan hacks
bullying of the MSM
neglect of abusive bosses in media & industry
tacit acceptance of W-Suprem in US culture
All built-in rot that DJT uses
FoxNews as sole info for 40% of ppl
White Supremacist Christian Movements
SCOTUS stacked w/partisan hacks
bullying of the MSM
neglect of abusive bosses in media & industry
tacit acceptance of W-Suprem in US culture
All built-in rot that DJT uses
5/ (a cont.) Any effectiveness of DJT comes from the power of that machine. But DJT's crew are Z-listers who botch up everything
In contrast, compare to a very talented evil crook: Dick Cheney. He got away w/war crimes & grand theft
DJT's group aren't good at crime
In contrast, compare to a very talented evil crook: Dick Cheney. He got away w/war crimes & grand theft
DJT's group aren't good at crime
6/ (a...) The success of 2016 didn't come from DJT's talent. It was from:
i. state sponsored espionage & cyber-hacking
ii. complicity of Facebook etc
iii. MSM bending backwards b/c they've been bullied into coddling Nazis AND b/c they thought HRC was going to win
iv. Comey
i. state sponsored espionage & cyber-hacking
ii. complicity of Facebook etc
iii. MSM bending backwards b/c they've been bullied into coddling Nazis AND b/c they thought HRC was going to win
iv. Comey
7/ (a...) 538 showed that Comey's October surprise was the necessary step to push DJT into victory. Until then, it wasn't going to happen, even with the massive treason & malfeasance.
Please remember this. DJT squeaked in.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…
Please remember this. DJT squeaked in.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-c…
8/ (a...) I emphasize DJT's incompetence b/c every plot gets exposed & often neutralized except when a different group carries it over the line. See the Muslim Ban which needed a disgusting SCOTUS ruling to enforce it
Another reason he fails so often is that he's evil but stupid
Another reason he fails so often is that he's evil but stupid
9/ (a...) By stupid, I mean: Trump (ym'sh) is like a space-alien in how he doesn't know anything about lived experiences of Americans. Mary Trump described him as basically being institutionalized his whole life. Fallout from his sheltered wealth
nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/…
nytimes.com/2020/07/07/us/…
10/ (a...) Can you imagine DJT mailing a letter? Buying groceries? Needing to show up at a job or he'll get fired & his family starve? Nnnnnope
His plots are stupid b/c he lacks facts. Destroying USPS is insane. It's a universal good.
Basically, Trump is all circus and no bread
His plots are stupid b/c he lacks facts. Destroying USPS is insane. It's a universal good.
Basically, Trump is all circus and no bread
11/ (a...) Circus is the distracting spectacle, bread is the easy-flow of benefit to his cult/followers. He gives them images of Libz being Pwned but doesn't give the cult anything else tangible. Cutting the mail is just mindless evil.
12/ (a...) Another reason all of his schemes backfire, besides being based on faulty facts, is that they're all short-term tactics that just explode in the end.
One of his worst approval periods was Jan 2019. Why? The insane gov. shutdown. That's what USPS gambit reminds me of.
One of his worst approval periods was Jan 2019. Why? The insane gov. shutdown. That's what USPS gambit reminds me of.
13/ (a...) BTW, his approval rose during the impeachment. There seems to be a rally-flag effect during that kinda thing. Just to keep in mind.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
Anyway, his gambits are brutal but not effective. Basically, terrorism. We're left with paralyzing fear.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
Anyway, his gambits are brutal but not effective. Basically, terrorism. We're left with paralyzing fear.
14/ This is the first of the 4 Comforts, (a) DJT's history of incompetence & the backlash he suffers.
I'll discuss the next 3, (b) October Surprises, (c) DJT's health & (d) Will of the People, soon.
I'll discuss the next 3, (b) October Surprises, (c) DJT's health & (d) Will of the People, soon.
15/ (B) October Surprises
We're worried Barr and/or GOP Senate will try to rig up a Biden scandal, weaponizing the DOJ & other investigations. It worked very well with w*kileaks (GRU operation) & the NY FBI pressuring Comey (see above, it was the last nail in the coffin)
We're worried Barr and/or GOP Senate will try to rig up a Biden scandal, weaponizing the DOJ & other investigations. It worked very well with w*kileaks (GRU operation) & the NY FBI pressuring Comey (see above, it was the last nail in the coffin)
16/ (b...) The 2019 Ukraine gambit was this type of surprise. Exploding that plot, I'm assuming, will neutralize many future plots.
More importantly, almost all of DJT's recent bizarre gambits immediately fizzle b/c of his shot credibility:
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
More importantly, almost all of DJT's recent bizarre gambits immediately fizzle b/c of his shot credibility:
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
17/ (b...) He says so many stupid lies that nobody seems to actually listen. His own admin. ignores his proclamations. He accused Obama, yesterday!, of treason. Met with yawns.
@HoarseWisperer said (great thread), we've become habituated to DJT's crazy
@HoarseWisperer said (great thread), we've become habituated to DJT's crazy
18/ (b...) Barr is better at the game, but barely. He's an absurd monarchist thug. Look at Lafayette Square and Portland. That's fascist fantasy, great for Barr's dictator cosplay, but absymal tactics. A whole lot of action, very little payoff
19/ (b...) Like with most of DJT's tactics, it's short-term thrill, long-term failure. If Barr tries the same stuff in Nov., we're prepared for it. We know he'll do something like it, even if he mixes up the presentation. He telegraphed his punch.
20/ (b...) But my point about October Surprises isn't about the GOP; it's about the Democrats.
There are real events that are imminent.
e.g. (i) The newest Senate Intel. Cmte report:
thehill.com/policy/cyberse…
There are real events that are imminent.
e.g. (i) The newest Senate Intel. Cmte report:
thehill.com/policy/cyberse…
21/ (b...) (ii) The NYC AG case is getting closer to an inflection point. They have his tax returns (an El Dorado) and have 2 months to come out with a damning revelation of Trump's crimes
politico.com/news/2020/08/1…
politico.com/news/2020/08/1…
22/ (b...) The Maxwell/Epstein case has so many facets that implicate Trump (ym'sh) personally it's disturbing.
Anything can come forward, especially from his underage victims. Maxwell can cut a deal; physical evidence abounds. He's very guilty of the worst crimes
Anything can come forward, especially from his underage victims. Maxwell can cut a deal; physical evidence abounds. He's very guilty of the worst crimes
23/ (b...) There are at least two other cases related to Trump (ym'sh) assaulting women, Summer Zervos & E. Jean Carroll
Again, both women can release information. Court discovery is a potent weapon.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
Again, both women can release information. Court discovery is a potent weapon.
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
24/ (b...) All of these Dem October Surprises are through the valid legal system. But there are other avenues for patriots to damage DJT
In every case above, plus the recent revelation that an over-classified report abt. Nov., damaging info can be leaked
thehill.com/homenews/senat…
In every case above, plus the recent revelation that an over-classified report abt. Nov., damaging info can be leaked
thehill.com/homenews/senat…
24/ (b...) A patriotic gov. employee, juror, even a staffer for an elected official can leak damaging info to the press, a la the Pentagon Papers
We're already seeing this avenue w/the #RussianBounties. The IC leaked that. Why not his tax returns? Or even more damaging stuff?
We're already seeing this avenue w/the #RussianBounties. The IC leaked that. Why not his tax returns? Or even more damaging stuff?
25/ (b...) A package of 5 greatest crimes by Trump (ym'sh) (1) tax returns (2) child-rape (3) audio clip of an NSA intercept of his unsecured phone calls w/Putin, (4) money laundering with Saudis, (5) support for other massacres etc, gets released mid-October
All possible
All possible
26/ (b...) I'm not saying probable, I'm not saying I'm counting on it, but like many of you I'm frightened of the GOP's dirty tricks. So I'm imagining my own list of counter-tricks
& in real life for each Ukraine-gambit by DJT I have RussianBounties by anti-DJT on the other side
& in real life for each Ukraine-gambit by DJT I have RussianBounties by anti-DJT on the other side
27/ (b...) So even with real evidence, we can see what tricks the GOP is trying (suppress the vote, Portland secret police, mail sabotage) but there's evidence on the other side that there can be damaging leaks to hamstring the GOP in return
28/ So far the first 2 of the Comforts: (a) DJT/GOP incompetence, (b) the good guys being fully capable of their own October Surprises
Next two: (c) DJT's health, (d) The Will of the People
Next two: (c) DJT's health, (d) The Will of the People
29/ (c) Third comfort for the election, Trump's (ym'sh) health is very bad. Tom Joseph (@TomJChicago) has been chronicling this for years; his lay experience with dementia has enabled him to predict DJT's deterioration into a gibbering, doddering mess
30/ (c...) Joseph's presumption is "Frontotemporal dementia" He chronicles the evidence: the words, yes, but also how DJT stands, jerks his limbs, staggers while walking etc. The attached video is from Feb 22, 2020 as logged by TJ
31/ (c...) DJT's deterioration is increasing acc. to the pace predicted by layppl like Joseph, but this is backed up by medical experts like @JohnMTalmadgeMD, @BandyXLee1 and the doctors of @duty2warn
e.g.
e.g.
32/ (c...) Here's a deeper description by @TomJChicago about the dementia:
As such, there's a solid chance that DJT won't physically be able to be in office in Nov
But they could hide it, you ask, citing Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Reagan etc. Yes, they can try
As such, there's a solid chance that DJT won't physically be able to be in office in Nov
But they could hide it, you ask, citing Woodrow Wilson, FDR, Reagan etc. Yes, they can try
33/ (c...) Here's where the Trump-Malignant-Narcissist-Coverup-Paradox comes into play (OK, it needs a better name):
To win in Nov, his neurological illness requires he be hidden away, YET his psychological malignancy demands he be the center of attention. The latter always wins
To win in Nov, his neurological illness requires he be hidden away, YET his psychological malignancy demands he be the center of attention. The latter always wins
34/ (c...) He cannot be hidden. If his team tries, all Biden will need to do is bait a hook. Call him out. Press his many trigger-buttons and Trump (ym'sh) will respond.
As HRC said, he's a simple puppet
vox.com/2016/7/28/1231…
As HRC said, he's a simple puppet
vox.com/2016/7/28/1231…
35/ (c..) Note: I dealt with the push-pull of DJT's handlers in the attached thread where I suggested the Jared/family arm is hoping his dementia will incapacitate him & shield him from prosecution while Barr needs DJT to win in Nov. so Barr can take over
36/ (c...) Allowing a significantly demented Trump (ym'sh) to debate Biden would be a debacle. He'd be a tottering, gibbering mess. DJT is, if anything, a huge (yuge) coward, so I doubt it will happen. He'll back out & have a set of weird speeches instead.
But I can dream, tho
But I can dream, tho
37/ (c...) Will DJT's dementia-riddled ego force his family to allow the debates? Will his inflated self-regard (a fragile shell that demands he 'win') overcome his subconscious knowledge that he will be completely embarrassed?
Dunno. But I'd like to see him fail in public
Dunno. But I'd like to see him fail in public
38/ (c...) Note, this is just one health problem. Noel Casler (@CaslerNoel) is a great follow b/c he knows DJT's private dirt, broke his NDA & tags DJT while tweeting embarrassing details of drug abuse, incontinence, depraved acts & crimes.
Trump (ym'sh) is a medical mess
Trump (ym'sh) is a medical mess
39/ @CaslerNoel describes DJT's drug addictions (crushed Adderall) but we also have heard of his terrible diet, his refusal to exercise, and we can see DJT's obesity.
Re: exercise, DJT's ignorance will likely kill him:
cnn.com/2019/02/08/pol…
Re: exercise, DJT's ignorance will likely kill him:
cnn.com/2019/02/08/pol…
40/ (c...) His height & weight are fictions. @CaslerNoel says he wears lifts & a girdle which compounds his difficulty walking, standing, and shows up in his odd suit shapes, esp. compared to when he's golfing.
41/ (c...) He's listed at 6'3" & 239lbs?!? Many people have pointed out how those numbers are the same for many NFL players, and demonstrate how ridiculous the lie is. See washingtonpost.com/news/early-lea…
&
&
42/ (c...) So even w/o dementia incapacitating him, it's a downright dark miracle he hasn't been laid low with a cardiac arrest or stroke.
BTW, it's likely the Nov 16 2019 emergency that took him to Walter Reed is when he took his infamous cognitive test
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
BTW, it's likely the Nov 16 2019 emergency that took him to Walter Reed is when he took his infamous cognitive test
washingtonpost.com/politics/trump…
43/ (c...) They lie about everything so we have no idea what the emergency was, but the mysterious @KT_So_It_Goes illustrates, there is a lot of evidence that the cog test was both forced on him and that *he failed it*:
44/ (c...) I'm a theologian, so it's almost predictable that Trump (ym'sh) sits in the midst of a raging plague, with a body wrecked by squalid bodily abuse, and yet has not been harmed. It defies science & odds, but truth is stranger than fiction
(see: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a…)
(see: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_a…)
45/ (c...) So this is the 3rd Comfort, DJT's cratering health. Even if his major health conditions don't crash under the pressure, his dementia is overt & will be nearly impossible to keep hidden given his desire for the limelight
Last Comfort next, hint:
Last Comfort next, hint:
46/ Sorry I haven't finished this yet; I took a break and now I'm doing a victory lap around internet b/c I'm super happy about the choice of Kamala Harris for VP & the #BidenHarris ticket
(see my comments, beginning here in my #RandomThoughts thread):
(see my comments, beginning here in my #RandomThoughts thread):
47/ OK, sorry for the delay, the sustained high from the VP pick has been a wonderful tonic amid the dystopia of 2020.
The 4th Comfort is The Will of the People; a term I'm using for the fact that a broad section of US citizens detest Trump (ym'sh) & want him gone
The 4th Comfort is The Will of the People; a term I'm using for the fact that a broad section of US citizens detest Trump (ym'sh) & want him gone
48/ This is the most stable, predictable & reliable of the comforts.
B/c the conventional wisdom right now is that DJT is quite hated & will lose. Which means any dirty tricks in the election that results in him falsely claiming victory will immediately be seen as illegitimate
B/c the conventional wisdom right now is that DJT is quite hated & will lose. Which means any dirty tricks in the election that results in him falsely claiming victory will immediately be seen as illegitimate
49/ I said back in March that things were so bad in America that there will be riots. I believe that without the pandemic we'd be having millions in the streets already, given the police brutality, corruption, financial collapse
50/ A number of people have noted that the fascist behavior of the GOP (Barr, DJT) is just the same stuff inflicted on people of color, but in 2020 it has expanded to the white citizenry. This is basically true and it's terrible that the majority have ignored it for so long
51/ But the white majority has ignored it, and now realizes how terrible the treatment is b/c it's being inflicted on them.
The two tiers of "justice" in America, like Constitutionally enshrined slavery, is the terrible paradox of the USA that we MUST uproot once & for all
The two tiers of "justice" in America, like Constitutionally enshrined slavery, is the terrible paradox of the USA that we MUST uproot once & for all
52/ And the paradox can be rectified b/c of how fascist the GOP is behaving. White people in America expect to be treated with power & dignity; the GOP has divided the country into Red & Blue and is actively trying to hurt the Blue
see: vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/h…
see: vanityfair.com/news/2020/07/h…
53/ This is where we get to Trump's (ym'sh) unpopularity. As of today, it's 54.5% disapproval, but the crosstabs of strong disapproval are important.
This site (today.yougov.com/topics/politic…) breaks down as of today:
VNeg 40
Neg 12
Pos 18
VPos 23
This site (today.yougov.com/topics/politic…) breaks down as of today:
VNeg 40
Neg 12
Pos 18
VPos 23
54/ That DJT has consistently met w/strong disapproval is crucial. Pair that with the civil rights marches for George Floyd a'h; they were the largest sustained protests in US history. Millions of people, all races, in all 50 states.
washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
55/ The historic protests followed the failed junta on June 1st at Lafayette Square (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Tr…).
The fascist incursion in Portland was met w/the Wall of Moms (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_of_M…)
People are clearly fed up & will take to the streets
The fascist incursion in Portland was met w/the Wall of Moms (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wall_of_M…)
People are clearly fed up & will take to the streets
56/ In sum: the collective understanding of a majority of Americans is that DJT is corrupt, hated, very behind in the polls, & liable to pull dirty tricks like Portland in Nov.
So if DJT tries to claim fake victory there will be an uprising b/c there *already has been*
So if DJT tries to claim fake victory there will be an uprising b/c there *already has been*
57/ White Americans will not accept being treated like non-citizens b/c they have not accepted it over the past few months. The anti-Trump outnumber the pro and as the above numbers show they are more fired up & determined
2020 isn't 2016 or 2000
2020 isn't 2016 or 2000
58/ 2000 the election could be stolen b/c the press made Bush similar to Gore, b/c we had 8 years of peace & prosperity, & b/c we naively thought that SCOTUS wouldn't be so corrupt as to allow the brother of the candidate to fabricate election results
59/ 2016 we were still naive about the Russian interference, the press made HRC look more corrupt than Trump (ym'sh), and Obama wanted to continue being above the fray and allowed the malfeasance to go uncontested
That will not happen in 2020. Why? Because it hasn't yet
That will not happen in 2020. Why? Because it hasn't yet
60/ That's my Fourth Comfort: that the American people expect DJT to lose and also to try to cheat, so they won't accept fake results. The protests in 2020 will be mild compared to future protests if the GOP try to steal 2020. We outnumber the bad guys. That's comforting.
61/ @threadreaderapp please unroll. I'll add notes later if necessary. Go #BidenHarris2020 !
