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The upcoming California heatwave is looking increasingly impressive. Intense and long-duration event now expected except at the immediate coast. And this will be a relatively humid heatwave, with unusually warm overnight temps. Some record heat is possible. (1/3) #CAwx #CAfire
In addition to a strong ridge building in from SE, the remnant low pressure circulation from former #HurricaneElida will approach CA coast Thurs-Fri, bringing an unusually muggy summer airmass. This means heat will feel more uncomfortable than typical CA heatwave. (2/3) #CAwx
Beyond mugginess, this moisture surge will also bring
possibility of some elevated convective clouds, which could include some light showers or even isolated thunderstorms. Pretty skies, but something to keep an eye on from fire weather perspective. (3/3) #CAwx #CAfire
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Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
New work led by Xingying Huang on extreme #AtmosphericRiver storms in California in a warming climate is out today in @ScienceAdvances (open access)! A thread discussing our findings and their implications follows. #CAwx #CAwater #CAclimate (1/n) advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/29/e…
Top-level findings: we find that the most intense atmospheric river storms in California will be become considerably more intense as the climate warms, bringing substantially more precipitation overall as well as higher precipitation intensities. (2/n)
advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/29/e…
We find that largest *absolute* increases in extreme AR precip occur where you might expect: along windward slopes of Sierra Nevada & Coastal Mountains. But...the largest *relative* increases occur in historically rain-shadowed areas--Central Valley & Sierra lee side. (3/n)
Read 13 tweets
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Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
Some brief thoughts from a climate & Earth system scientist on natural disasters & #ClimateChange. This is coming from someone who grew up watching PBS specials on natural disasters and then went on to obtain a PhD focused on extreme events in the natural world. (1/n)
Various entities & individuals use different definitions regarding what, exactly, constitutes a "natural disaster." Some focus on physical characteristics of event itself; others focus on event's impacts on human systems. Both definitions can be useful in specific contexts. (2/n)
A key element in any definition of a natural disaster, though, is that the causative event must arise from a natural processes of the Earth--in other words, they stem from an atmospheric, geologic, hydrologic, or biospheric process of some kind. (3/n)
Read 19 tweets
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Daniel Swain
@Weather_West
New work led by @SciGibson @NASAJPL! We take a deep dive into northeastern Pacific high pressure ridging, including trends, implications for California drought, #AtmosphericRiver activity, and possible underlying physical mechanisms. (1/6) #CAwx #CAwater journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11…
We find several distinct "flavors" of high pressure ridging that tend to recur historically. Each spatial configuration affects atmospheric river activity & western U.S. precipitation in a distinct manner. (2/6) #CAwx #CAwater #AZwx #ORwx #WAwx journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11…
All three ridge types (north, west, and south-centered) are associated with drought in California and the Colorado River basin, but only "north-type" ridges are associated with drought in the Pacific Northwest. #CAwx #ORwx #WAwx #AZwx #UTwx #CAwater journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11… (3/6)
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