Thread by @ThyConsigliori

14 August 2020 #MAGAanalysis

Is Kamala Harris a Trap Laid by Biden?

I don't know this author, Paul Brandus's work. But, this is not a bad article. As you'll see I disagree. But taking in what we disagree with is important.

marketwatch.com/story/biden-la…

2) "She’s the first black woman to be on the ticket of a major U.S. political party"

While obvious, there is no established doctrine that this actually matters. Some hundreds of Democrat leaders have stated that it mattered. And Joe acceded. Does that make it so?

3) I was a Democrat at the time, but Ferraro's pick did nothing to make me more enthusiastic about Dukakis. I have both Greek and Italian roots, but neither of them excited me. I felt insulted that race or gender were thought to affect my vote.

4) Which is to say, I was never an Identity Democrat. As we'll see in a moment, not believing the polls out there, I have no idea how many Democrats subscribe to Identity Politics. For those who do, Harris's pick will shore up what they were going to do anyway.

5) "and if current polls — notably in key swing states — hold up, she will early next year become the 49th vice president of the United States."

On its face I reject this. Head over here to help me find the real answer.

BetweenTheLines.Vote

6) I do appreciate the word "if." If current polls hold up, he states. The thing is, the current polls are completely bogus. The truth is more like this:

If the doctored polls we're using as the ONLY basis of our entire campaign some magical how come true...

7) For Harris's selection to be meaningful in any way, the current polls have to be both true AND hold up. This is the most important point. Don't gloss over it. Every indicator I look at tells me that the Democrat leadership knows how bad the situation is.

8) The one advantage I give Biden is that he is not HRC. He does not stir up the same visceral hatred among Republicans that she did. He is more likeable than she was. His campaign is arguably worse than hers was. Sure, there's COVID. And that gets you the big job?

9) I think HRC was incompetent as a leader. But that stemmed from her gross corruption far more than from personal, demonstrable incapacity. If she finds her way there, Harris' corruption will do the same. But she is not grossly incompetent as is Biden.

19) Her glib fluidity of speaking provides a stark contrast to Biden's stumbling, bumbling, mind-wandering, blithering idiocy. So, who will vote for their ticket that might not have otherwise? Those who want Harris for President. And, we've already tested that. She bombed.

20) "in the 2018 midterms, women voted for Democratic congressional candidates by a stunning margin of 59% to 40%."

I haven't followed exit polling, nor demographic vote counting after elections, yet. I'm tempted to believe this is true, therefore.

21) My own analysis of our 2018 loss does not support the significance of that number. When you read it, and assuming it is correct, it doesn't tell you how many women love Trump but weren't motivated enough to get out and vote.

22) I place 2018's loss on something much bigger than gender or any specific demographic. I place it upon Republican complacency writ large. We have, as an entire nation, allowed voting to exist on a 4-year presidential cycle. We do NOT have a 2-year Congressional cycle in mind.

23) Do females vote more Democrat than Republican? Absolutely yes, that is true. The fallacy in this article's core point is that this is the hinge point on the election. Brandus quickly return to polls to make his point.

24) "With three months to go, just 38% of registered female voters say (in a Hill-HarrisX survey) that they are likely to support Trump in November."

I'm not going to go study that poll. I will note that it is Registered and NOT Likely voters.

25) And I can easily predict that their model favored Democrats over Republicans. My own guess is that over 90% of Republican female voters favor Trump. And, their enthusiasm and will to vote are white hot.

26) Last let's consider the single non-poll based, strategic case offered. Note, it is NOT FOR Harris, it is rather AGAINST Trump. That counts. The case is, Trump will play right into women's vaunted hatred of him, by being mean to Harris. This is Biden's real trap for Trump.

27) The thing is, this too has already been tested at the highest level. Who doesn't remember that this argument was made countless times up until 3 November, 2016? The basis of this argument, then and now, is that a woman cannot be treated the same way a man can.

28) No one seems to see the intellectual inconsistency here. We should vote for a woman, because she's a woman, and will therefore be the first female president or VP. But, we must treat her with kid gloves...because she's a woman. Trump sees through this inconsistency, easily.

29) Americans are fair, honest people. In the sanctity of the voting booth we don't vote for a man or a woman, a black or a white person, etc. We vote for the person, not their exterior identity. We are not an identity politics people. We are the greatest melting pot in history.

30) While well written, and well argued, this article is flawed in its basic assumptions and the conclusions drawn. The logic in between is fine, but false assumptions ensure false conclusions. There's just no way to get around that.

Thread ends at #30.