Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BetweenTheLinesDotVote

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4 November 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Rule of Law - 2nd of our 10 MAGA Planks

I can't say I'm proud of them, but, almost as good, I'm at least NOT disgusted with two sites that I still follow, in spite of myself. Drudge and Dornsife. Here's Drudge's lead today.
2) I have to give it to them. That is not an unfair lead. Isn't the old school news term, "page 1, above the fold?" Data guy that I am, I have zero dispute with the reported numbers, such as they are. Do they follow the Rule of Law? We'll get into that below.
3) Now, you're just going to have to let me brag a bit here, you know, data guy that I am! Check out the one accurate chart at Dornsife out of all there completely wrong other charts all of them. You're gonna have to give this one to me.
Read 41 tweets
30 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Rallies vs Polls? And How About The Election Book?

If you head over to Drudge, you'll quickly see that we need not wait for the election to declare Biden the winner. Even the betting oddsmakers have collapsed Trump's chances.
2) Let's talk about the betting first. As I understand it, the going cost of building a new casino in Vegas runs between a cool Billion and a Billion and a half, or so. How many casinos are there in Vegas? I don't know. Maybe, billions and many billions worth?
3) Event gambling can only be what tiny fraction of the revenue stream. I can be a very devious and crafty man. If I were advising the Democratic leadership, I'd tell them with wincing, buy out the entire book this year. How much could it cost?
Read 35 tweets
28 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

So, Here's A Backdoor - Go Figure!

How do you not love @dbongino? He posted this story, yesterday, written by @johnhawkinsrwn. I have to tip my hat in respect. I didn't find this stuff!…
2) I know, I always say I'm going to stop charting - monitor but not chart - Dornsife and then they always pull me back in. I'm such a data addict, I can't help myself. But, I'm going cold turkey today. No charts, and the article above is why. I'll explain.
3) Oh,. I almost forgot! Great thanks out to @mflixx who sent me this story, yesterday. You're the man, Matt!

Now let's turn to the irritating part. Look at this headline:

"USC Dornsife Polling Predicts Another Trump Victory Next Week"

I did NOT know that. That's irritating.
Read 36 tweets
27 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

DJIA Work + Dornsife's Book Cooking

A big day of charts. My hope is to go 1 or 2, and hopefully no more (unless necessary) comments per chart. We dive in right now, with the DJIA first, Dornsife second. This is the 40-year chart.
2) What you see are 2 simple support lines. We don't have time to correlate the lines to their presidents, but a nod must be given to Obama, as his support and Trump's are a single line. I hate saying it, but my charts simply do not lie. Support is support, and there you see it.
3) The thing is, and we'll see this soon, Trump's support would NOT be on a line with Obama's if it weren't for the China Virus. But more on that to come, below...
Read 32 tweets
26 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

The Battle Is Keen

We're in the thick of it right now, my friends. Contrary to most other media, I will NOT tell you who the easy winner is. I wish it were Trump. But, not knowing that, easy is not what we'll be studying.
2) As I've explained, I do not trust this data. I believe it is being manipulated. However, if once the dust settles the outcome look like this, I will bow in humility. My call, on the contrary. is that even that this, the most honest poll at Dornsife, is still being manipulated.
3) Out of an abundance of discipline, pretending this data were true, here's where we go. This is the updated entire campaign season Dornsife data, marked up by me. On this scale, the cear outlines of battle are best suited to this data.
Read 16 tweets
25 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote #MAGAanalysis

The Strange Art of Self-Promotion

@realDonaldTrump has taken the art of Self-Promotion, as it were, from water mills to cold fusion (stars run on cold fusion). In this thread, I must emulate him to the degree I'm able.
2) On that note, yesterday's thread, retweeted above, is one you'll want to read. You'll want to read it from start to finish. Well, I didn't really finish it. I got interrupted by events in the real world. But, the stuff that's there is part of today's story. Please do read it.
3) Below, we will turn to today's chart work. It is very interesting. But right now, I have to cut to the chase on the self-promotion thing. Let's talk about this. In today's world, there is a GREAT CHARGE AGAINST self-promotion. Today's most detested value is egotism.
Read 57 tweets
22 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Interesting. Very Interesting. A Big Day of Chart Updates.

I gotta say, I'm thinking some executives over at Dornsife are smacking their foreheads over the decision to include all these new charts! Here's today's data. Image
2) As I promised, I have been keeping up with the data daily, but only report on interesting new developments. Well, I saw yesterday that we were heading into interesting territory and yep, sure enough, today did not disappoint! Wait for it...
3) Nodding my head with analytical pride, just look at this chart. And, we have some doozies to come! This is the best.

Don't you just LOVE it when a good theory proves right? Wow, what a rush. Look at this, and tell me if you follow, will you? Image
Read 44 tweets
21 October #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Analysis Works! Check This Out!!

I started this analysis a few days ago, and knew I'd gotten my hands on something, but wasn't quite sure what. Now I know, and show in the chart below. They call this their Periodicity Problem.
2) It takes mental discipline to read this chart. I call it the Go On 3 problem. Do we go the instant we hear 3? Or, do we wait until the word "three" is completed? Do you count from the start of something, or from its end? Believe it or not, its actually an important problem.
3) To read this chart, you need to understand some fundamental information. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7! That's one week. Seven days. And, it marks roughly one half of Dornsife's respondents. I call them Group 1. And I denote their thoughts at the END of the week.
Read 16 tweets
17 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Some Damned Data You Can Believe In!

Wanna know what keeps me up at night? Bad data does. It pisses me off. It gives me nightmares. No kidding. You get the idea that I hate bad data, right? So soothe your eyes with me here.
2) Now that is true data. Feast your eyes upon it. Take it in. You want truth? I do! This is truth. It's the real deal. It actually happened and there ain't nobody trying to mess with this image. No propaganda. No Psyop. Just raw, honest, real truth. Go slowly with me.
3) Note the time frame. We see 4 10-year points on our X axis across the bottom: 1986, 1996, 2006, 2016. We can guess we go back to an unmarked 1980, and forward to the present, so 40 years of real, honest data.
Read 30 tweets
16 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

If Only I Could Believe The Data...

I'm a data addict. I can't help myself. It calms my disturbed and troubled mind. And, if it's only rational, then I'm happy. No, not by the results forecasted, just merely be the rationality.
2) The first point to be made, and repeated, is that every bit of this data falls within the margin of error area. By this ONE chart, the election has been a statistical dead heat from day one. I respect that. Every other chart Dornsife offers has Biden a 100% winner. Locked.
3) I add happily that I have never believed these numbers. I have only allowed them closest to the truth status, out of all the other blather Dornsife posts. My real belief is that Trump has been ahead of Biden this entire time. I am, however, humble enough to consider this data.
Read 31 tweets
12 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Where Are We...Really?

If I'm a Biden advisor, I'm scared out of my head about the numbers we'll look at today. Yes, they say were ahead, but are the numbers true, and are we really ahead? Not too sure, you know? We'll dive in.
2) Let's take a closer look, at our now familiar chart explosion, with simple support and resistance lines. Check this out. Here we are, nicely headed back up toward our comfortable resistance line, Trump heading back down. So what could be wrong?
3) What's wrong is this. We have NOT killed him, yet. Trump is such a dangerous enemy that, until you knock him out, a pure KO, he's very able to come back and pull victory from the jaws of defeat. He is precisely that dangerous. There's no knock out so far. That's not good.
Read 31 tweets
11 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

A Single True Thing We Know

Humility. We must all admit, we don't know where the election stands right now. I do have formations I will share, today. But the very meaning of these formations is...we do not know where we stand.
2) We've discussed the Iceberg Theory that NO POLL is adequately tracking Trump support. I don't know if I buy that for a single reason. I want to buy it. I want to believe in a looming massive landslide for Trump, in spite of just about every poll out there.
3) Funny thing, the coming charts, which at first glance call for a looming Biden victory, are not nearly so simple as first glance may indicate. Let's go ahead and look at first glance right now.
Read 16 tweets
9 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

The Power Of A Single Question

We've discussed this before. The chart here is the one and only chart, most closely approximating the 2016 Dornsife method.

It is: "Who do you think people in your state will vote for?"
2) It is good to remember that 2016 Dornsife only asked these 3 questions:

1) Will you vote?
2) Who for?
3) Who will win?

To my eye, #3 was always the most important. It also accords with the Flynn Doctrine: Who the people think will win, will win.
3) Throughout this season so far, it's been my contention that the entire Anti-Trump Establishment (ATE) - hey, not a bad acronym, eh? They want to eat him! - has employed a propaganda-driven False Polling based Psyop to project Biden as winner regardless of fact or truth.
Read 42 tweets
6 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Just When I Thought I Was Out...

Just one damned chart at Dornsife pulls me back in. Wait till you see today's charts! But first, I have a new poll to introduce to you and I'm so excited.…
2) To my Democrat friends, I know it may be difficult to trust me when the data I like also shows the projections I desire. We talk about confirmation bias all the time, I know. But we're at a critical juncture in this election, and I have to perpetually seek the strongest data.
3) Please look at this quote from the article above:

"The fieldwork for this survey of a randomly selected national telephone (landline and cell) sample of 1,500 likely voters was conducted by the Democracy Institute’s polling unit from September 30th to October 2nd 2020.
Read 37 tweets
3 October 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Setting Up For The Final Run - Major Chart Work

Our entire nation sits in hope, fear, and some strange new how, solidarity with our President and our First Lady. As they face Covid head on, personally, together, we all pause.
2) I didn't verify it, but if the headline I saw is true and Biden is pulling all negative ads for the moment, then my hat's off to him and his team. It may be expedient, but if so, it's one of those rare moments when expedience and doing the right thing are the same.
3) If anyone tells you today that they can call the coming election outcome, tell them they're a liar or an idiot or both. The what ifs are exploding right now. The term for that is imponderable. We're at a chaos moment, an impossible to predict explosion of factors.
Read 75 tweets
29 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

We Always Pretend The Data Is True

If you're going to analyze anything you have to at least pretend the data given is honest, real, worthy. Sometimes the pretense is harder than others. It's okay, we'll find our way. I promise.
2) I have no idea if, like me, you are the kind of person who'd LOVE to go to the sausage factory. I'd do it in a heartbeat. I love eating sausage. I would love to know how its made. I'm that kind of guy. Well, this thread will be a sausage factory style thread. Okay?
3) Diligent student that you must be, you're going to want to read or review yesterday's post. In the coming charts, you'll see how yesterday's calls show up precisely on target in today's work. So, take your time, here's yesterday's work:

Read 26 tweets
28 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

The Hidden Poll Over At Dornsife Progresses

Let's go slowly to get started today. In 2012 and 2016, what was the true basis of Dornsife's genius?

It was just 3 questions:

1) Will you vote?
2) Who for?
3) Who will win?
2) The chart you see above is the poll at Dornsife that MOST approximates their 2012 and 2016 method. It's question, who will people in your state vote for, comes close to the who will win question they previously asked. We must linger on that point.
3) I confess, I'm still upset, actually, a bit heart broken over the fact that Dornsife has abandoned its former method. I've written on this extensively, already, so won't linger long. But, there can be only one reason to alter a method so proven to be successful. Agenda.
Read 31 tweets
27 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

New Data. New Lines. New Methods!

Before we discuss our new data, I have two wonderful friends to thank for their guidance: @teddyspeedboat and @JohnBasham. They both told me the technology was no challenge, and were right!
2) So what you see above are the first support and resistance lines I have ever drawn, using Excel's SO SIMPLE line drawing tool. I feel like such an idiot. It was more than just simple, it was FAR easier than drawing those lines by hand. Wow! Thanks my friends!!!
3) Also before discussing the meaning of the chart and its clear support and resistance lines, let's discuss the data itself, its strengths and limitations, limitations first. As you can see, I am only able to present my data in weekly chunks, as I don't get enough data each day.
Read 21 tweets
24 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Dornsife Predicts Trump Victory!

Okay, not really, but this chart - one of 8 now available - actually does lean Trump's way. Check it out.
2) I'll be short right now. Here's why. I have decided to extract all the data and show it in my own way. I do consider this important work or I'd not waste my time, I promise.
3) I think the tactic involved here is called an Information Dump. You've seen it in movies about law cases, when one side requests specific information and the other sends truck loads of boxes inside of which is the information, but there's almost no way to find it.
Read 30 tweets
23 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis


Part 1 of 2

I'll offer some short thoughts below. Here, I charge you, just look at these two charts and let me know what you see, will you? ImageImage
2) In case you're not accustomed to polling data chart analysis, I'll give you a few tips on what to look at. First, note that it is the people being polled, but that the first is a 7-day window, and the second a 14-day. In fact, looks a little bit more closely.
3) Here are the two different data sets for today. Note, the data employs the date 22 Sep. This is completely correct. You cannot look at all of yesterday's data until today. As you look, note especially these two points: (N: 2575) on the 7-day, and (N: 5440) on the 14-day. ImageImage
Read 16 tweets
22 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Could It Be? Are We Poking The Giant In The Eye?

My plan, this morning, was to introduce my own polling data, imperfect as it is, but ready for publication. And then what happens? You have to read the fine print. Image
2) Here's the key information:

"Since respondents are invited to respond every 14 days, the 7-day graphic was subject to a certain level of periodicity, since the sample on which the graph was based essentially repeats every other week...
3) "...Our goal for this graphic was to have it more nimbly reflect reactions to news events than it could if the full 14 day wave was included in each data point."
Read 16 tweets
20 Sep 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

True Or False - Insight Or Psyop

Before we tackle the data, this is my mental fortification tool, perfect espresso. No, not perfect, but pretty damned good. I do this every day, but today I thought I needed to share it with you, too.
2) In case you're interested, perfect espresso must be deliciously drinkable, with no modification, that is, no sweeteners or frothy milk, etc. My roasting skills haven't risen that high yet, so I do sweeten my espresso with Splenda. One day I'll get there.
3) My machine is a stove top espresso maker called a Karmira. It generates the largest amount of delicious crema of any machine I've ever used. If you're into stove top machines, I don't think there's a better one out there.
Read 42 tweets
19 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Calm Before The Storm - Or, The Plot Is About To Thicken

You can't look for any impact from Justice Ginsburg's death in today's data. It'll be 3 - 7 days, I imagine, before we see its impact emerge. What I see here is calm.
2) You see above I opted to draw two charts over the same data from both campaigns, and including our Insignificant Difference Area. There are many stories here. The roiling currents beneath the calm surface are really there everywhere. There's one that jumps up at me.
3) On the first chart, I have to go with Trump's resistance line as the most threatening story, about to break above the surface...of the IDA's lower limit. If he doesn't, his numbers will have to fall toward support and that will mean a new formation to the downside.
Read 31 tweets
18 September 2020 #BetweenTheLinesDotVote Analysis

Suspension Of Disbelief...Or...?

When you watch a movie or TV show, listen to a radio show, or read a good story, your mind does the funniest thing. It suspends disbelief. Same thing happens if a friend tells you a story.
2) You know you're not there. You know it is not actually happening right now in front of you. You know you're not participating or even actually observing. But, your mind places you as if a fly on the wall, or a ghost in the breeze, and you see and hear if real.
3) It's as if the whole thing is happening in real time. Yet it's not, it isn't even happening at all. Many times, it couldn't happen, no matter what. We call that form, fantasy. I bet you never thought of it, but political polling demands the exact same function of mind.
Read 36 tweets

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