Going to have to add my comments on a "replay" of @DisrupTVShow. Paul Sheard, renowned economist w/ @Kennedy_School sharing some many stats I can't capture quickly enough. Follow-up at a later time. 👏👏Mr. Sheard - What a genius!!
@rwang0 @ValaAfshar #DisrupTV
@rwang0 @ValaAfshar #DisrupTV
So this definitely required a '"rewatch" to fully comprehend the breadth and depth of Paul Sheard's @Kennedy_School comments.
Here is how to see this and other episodes of @DisrupTVShow on @Vimeo (click on either embedded screenshot).
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Here is how to see this and other episodes of @DisrupTVShow on @Vimeo (click on either embedded screenshot).
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2/n...
Mr. Sheard begins the dialogue speaking to the "disconnect btw the Real Economy & the Financial Markets (IT sector) Economy".
Unemplment Stats:
Covid- Feb-3.5%->April-14.7%=11.2%⬆️ in 2 mos.
Great Recession- Aug 2008-6.1%->14 mos. later-10.0%=3.9%⬆️
Staggering!
cont.
Mr. Sheard begins the dialogue speaking to the "disconnect btw the Real Economy & the Financial Markets (IT sector) Economy".
Unemplment Stats:
Covid- Feb-3.5%->April-14.7%=11.2%⬆️ in 2 mos.
Great Recession- Aug 2008-6.1%->14 mos. later-10.0%=3.9%⬆️
Staggering!
cont.
3/n
Mr. Sheard continues discussion abt Policy Authorities (Govt) vs. Central Banks are driving "economic policy". Not normal.
Speaks of how "Underemployed" are not being counted.
@rwang0 adds "(30+% are unable to work online"
Next up: "The Covid Effect down the Road"
cont.
Mr. Sheard continues discussion abt Policy Authorities (Govt) vs. Central Banks are driving "economic policy". Not normal.
Speaks of how "Underemployed" are not being counted.
@rwang0 adds "(30+% are unable to work online"
Next up: "The Covid Effect down the Road"
cont.
4/n
Mr. Sheard begins w/ a possible assumption we get through Covid by 2022 (mentions if it still "hung on" but less likely) so he carries on.
"Full Recovery means unemployment goes down to ~4% and inflation rises to ~2, 2.5 or 3%."
Comments here re: the U.S. Economy
cont.
Mr. Sheard begins w/ a possible assumption we get through Covid by 2022 (mentions if it still "hung on" but less likely) so he carries on.
"Full Recovery means unemployment goes down to ~4% and inflation rises to ~2, 2.5 or 3%."
Comments here re: the U.S. Economy
cont.
5/n
Mr. Sheard talks about the "likelihood" of getting back to the path we were on pre-COVID.
He worries about the damage done to both "capital stock" and "human capital stock".
It's now about to get REALLY interesting...
cont.
Mr. Sheard talks about the "likelihood" of getting back to the path we were on pre-COVID.
He worries about the damage done to both "capital stock" and "human capital stock".
It's now about to get REALLY interesting...
cont.
6/n
Mr. Sheard suggests "rolling out all of the ammunition you have as fast as you can b/c:
1- Individuals have lived outside of work
2- Individuals have lost attachment &
3- Individuals skills may have deteriorated
Note: Individuals defined as unemployed persons.
cont.
Mr. Sheard suggests "rolling out all of the ammunition you have as fast as you can b/c:
1- Individuals have lived outside of work
2- Individuals have lost attachment &
3- Individuals skills may have deteriorated
Note: Individuals defined as unemployed persons.
cont.
7/n
Mr. Sheard addresses the risk of elongating the period & overall "underinvestment".
Moves to "Economist Terms":
"If (italicize/underline if I knew how to on Twitter) the Economy get back to full employment:
a-Nominal inflation
b-Everyone who wants to work can work"
Cont.
Mr. Sheard addresses the risk of elongating the period & overall "underinvestment".
Moves to "Economist Terms":
"If (italicize/underline if I knew how to on Twitter) the Economy get back to full employment:
a-Nominal inflation
b-Everyone who wants to work can work"
Cont.
8/n
Mr. Sheard talks about pre-COVID trends that will/are being "Accentuated, Accelerated, & Amplified" (#SV, #TECH, #Innovation, others)
Concludes section stating in 10yrs., this will be "genesis" of COVID which will be realized.
cont.
Mr. Sheard talks about pre-COVID trends that will/are being "Accentuated, Accelerated, & Amplified" (#SV, #TECH, #Innovation, others)
Concludes section stating in 10yrs., this will be "genesis" of COVID which will be realized.
cont.
9/n
@rwang0 begins talking about the expansion of monetary policy
-Gold⬆️
-Bond Yields⬇️
Inquires: "Will this make us go straight to MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)?"
Paul expands: "This is one of the pitfalls btw mainstream economists and MMTers"
cont.
@rwang0 begins talking about the expansion of monetary policy
-Gold⬆️
-Bond Yields⬇️
Inquires: "Will this make us go straight to MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)?"
Paul expands: "This is one of the pitfalls btw mainstream economists and MMTers"
cont.
10/n
Mr. Sheard's advice on the pitchfork battle: "Get over it - figure out what we can agree on."
Moves to talk about the "Macroeconomic Policy Framework" developed in the 20th century.
"Shackles and Handcuffs were put in place Policy Authorities (Govt) & Central Banks"
cont
Mr. Sheard's advice on the pitchfork battle: "Get over it - figure out what we can agree on."
Moves to talk about the "Macroeconomic Policy Framework" developed in the 20th century.
"Shackles and Handcuffs were put in place Policy Authorities (Govt) & Central Banks"
cont
11/n
@rwang0 and Mr. Sheard pivot discussion pivots to QE (Quantitative Easing)
- Central Banks are changing the "debt" profile of Govt
- U.S. is taking "treasuries" out of peoples' hands and replacing w/ Central Bank reserves
Big pivot to MMT in next tweet
cont.
@rwang0 and Mr. Sheard pivot discussion pivots to QE (Quantitative Easing)
- Central Banks are changing the "debt" profile of Govt
- U.S. is taking "treasuries" out of peoples' hands and replacing w/ Central Bank reserves
Big pivot to MMT in next tweet
cont.
12/n
@rwang0 - "Can you only get away w/ MMT if you are a Central currency?"
Mr. Sheard: "Only works when society accepts it"
He goes on to speak of credibility citing U.S., Japan, Australia, Canada
Next pivot will be to EU discussion & difference there
cont.
@rwang0 - "Can you only get away w/ MMT if you are a Central currency?"
Mr. Sheard: "Only works when society accepts it"
He goes on to speak of credibility citing U.S., Japan, Australia, Canada
Next pivot will be to EU discussion & difference there
cont.
13/n
Mr. Sheard "The European Union is the interesting part b/c of the Euro & ECB. EU countries somewhat reliant on what comes out of Frankfurt (maybe Berlin) or Paris to make the $$ and keep it flowing"
Next to look at disparities of responses to Covid and the irony...
cont.
Mr. Sheard "The European Union is the interesting part b/c of the Euro & ECB. EU countries somewhat reliant on what comes out of Frankfurt (maybe Berlin) or Paris to make the $$ and keep it flowing"
Next to look at disparities of responses to Covid and the irony...
cont.
14/n
...of different countries.
China - looking pretty good at 4700 deaths (doesn't necessarily think the numbers are believable but still does not discount
U.S. - completely different citing ~160K+ and 140x China rate (I did not run the math but as of typing U.S. ~170K
cont.
...of different countries.
China - looking pretty good at 4700 deaths (doesn't necessarily think the numbers are believable but still does not discount
U.S. - completely different citing ~160K+ and 140x China rate (I did not run the math but as of typing U.S. ~170K
cont.
15/n
Speaks neighboring zip codes (S. Korea, SEA countries, etc.) & some are slightly better/worse vs. China.
Moving back to Economics stating "Economists measure economies based on GDP
Q2 GDP #'s as % of Global Mkt
U.S. ~ 25%
China ~ 16% (BUT China growing 3x of U.S.
cont.
Speaks neighboring zip codes (S. Korea, SEA countries, etc.) & some are slightly better/worse vs. China.
Moving back to Economics stating "Economists measure economies based on GDP
Q2 GDP #'s as % of Global Mkt
U.S. ~ 25%
China ~ 16% (BUT China growing 3x of U.S.
cont.
16/n
Mr. Sheard continues: "The U.S. & China need to figure out a way to work together".
@rwang0 intercedes cautioning "the risk China is getting into the currency game w/ crypto, etc."
Convo moves on next to "Decoupling"
cont.
Mr. Sheard continues: "The U.S. & China need to figure out a way to work together".
@rwang0 intercedes cautioning "the risk China is getting into the currency game w/ crypto, etc."
Convo moves on next to "Decoupling"
cont.
17/n
Mr. Sheard: "Some amount of decoupling seems to be somewhat, almost unavoidable. It really depends on what the U.S., China and for that matter, the REST of the World decide to do.
Learned a ton from Paul Sheard🙏 only on @DisrupTVShow
Kudos: @rwang0 @ValaAfshar @frozeel
Mr. Sheard: "Some amount of decoupling seems to be somewhat, almost unavoidable. It really depends on what the U.S., China and for that matter, the REST of the World decide to do.
Learned a ton from Paul Sheard🙏 only on @DisrupTVShow
Kudos: @rwang0 @ValaAfshar @frozeel
