Thread by @NoTeamsIndy

8/15 UPDATE on @JoeBiden / Trump matchup

Nat'l: Biden +9.5 / Clinton +6.8
Electoral votes: Biden 302 / Clinton = 252

This was Clinton's STRONGEST point in the general election: post-VP announcement and Dem convention, while Biden announced VP 4 days ago, convention still ahead.

NOTES:

1. "Battleground": ≥10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. Polls with 3rd party candidates used, when available

3. High/low turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

NOTES (con’t):

For the first time ever, I'm excluding an A-B rated pollster, namely Spry. This decision is based on their use of "push" questions (i.e., crafted to be critical of one party), and results that were erratically misaligned with other polls from the same states.

Polling versus forecasts

A1. 2016 polling *averages* were ACCURATE (≥5%), nat'l + swing states, except WI/IA

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

Most election *forecasts*—which this thread is NOT—weren't. 538's forecast largely matched odds from Trump’s internal pollsters at ~30%

A2. Biden battleground margins vs. Trump 2.7% better than Clinton’s (pic 1)

BUT average undecideds + 3rd party 7.8% now, less than HALF of 20.2% on 8/15/16.

Also, Biden’s lead is larger than or equal to ALL remaining undecideds in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton (pic 2)

A2a. That's because 2020 general electorate ALREADY more engaged than voters on Election Day in 2016, 2012, or even Obama’s first election in 2008! This question isn't asked very often by pollsters, but 2020 polls that did found 82-89% "very/extremely" interested or motivated.

A3. Biden should be weaker than Clinton, since he's running against an incumbent, who've won re-election 10 of 13 times since 1916 (LBJ, Truman didn't run)

Per @ForecasterEnten, Biden's in the strongest position of any challenger in modern polling

cnn.com/2020/05/31/pol…

A3a. Enten further notes that the only incumbent in modern polling to come back after trailing as badly as Trump is now was Truman in 1948. Carter was in a similar position in 1980, and lost by 440 electoral votes.

cnn.com/2020/06/27/pol…

(A3a) As much as trailing candidates love the Truman story and this famous pic from 1948, polling methods have been fundamentally changed since then, not least by moving away from "quota sampling," and literal door knocking to find respondents:

math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/…

A3b. Biden hasn't trailed in a SINGLE nat'l poll by an A-B rated pollster in 2020. Clinton trailed in TEN by 8/1/16. Just four ties for Biden (one for Clinton), and only one w/undecided factor ≥10% (Atlas 2/3: 45/45); in other words, when leaners break, they break for Biden.

A3b. Speaking of breakers: most pollsters automatically include "leaners" in their totals, but three separated that data, and Biden won them 66-33, 75-25, and 50-50. That means Trump’s hope of a late break in his direction is very unlikely without a major shift in voter sentiment

A3b. In fact, Biden’s lead is STEADIEST in modern polling. Why? Because, as expressed in a phrase from the campaign, “WE KNOW JOE.” This is what's kept him ahead, despite the onslaught of smears and criticisms coming from the far right and left.

cnn.com/2020/05/10/pol…

A3b. But no lead's 100% stable. Media’s looking for clicks, so they’ll hype any change, but comparing recent A-B polls shows nat'l perfectly steady at 9.5%, small increases in 8 battlegrounds, decreases in 3. Only big change is ME-2, where non-A/B poll was replaced with A/B.

A4. Past "Dem/GOP states" more competitive now, becoming toss-ups (WI, AZ) or leaners (ME, MO).

Partly demographic changes, partly sentiment. Point is, 2016/20 comparisons never exactly equal

newsweek.com/us-state-popul…

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

Here’s a chart on how states compare to nat’l average in 2020:

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-b…

So why all these comparisons to the last election? First, there are some valuable contrasts to be made, especially since Biden’s running against the same opponent.

But mostly, it’s cuz if ya don’t, people who don’t like the data will just lazily say "BUT 2016!!!"

B1. How's he doing it? Per A/B-rated nat'l polls (7/15-8/14) vs 2016 exits, he's outperforming Clinton:

White: +19
White/college: +18
White/no coll: +20
Men: +10
18-29 yrs: +16
Over 65: +14
Moderate: +18
Suburban +18

B1a. The most noteworthy of these is that Biden has essentially TIED Trump with white voters. No Dem's won this group since LBJ in '64. Only others to get within 5% were Carter 76, Clinton 92/96, and Obama 08, the last three Dems to win the presidency. All others lost by 10-20%+.

B1a. Reflective of this, he's also doing much better with white college graduates, a group that’s been a key swing demographic since 1988. More importantly, he’s doing 18% (!!!) better with white voters who didn't go to college, a group that turned out BIG for Trump in 2016.

B1b. Next is being TIED with men. Again, the last three to do it were Carter 76, Clinton 92/96, and Obama 08, all others lost by 10-20%+.

He’s winning another traditional GOP bloc, voters over 65, which all winning Dems have held since Carter.

B1b. Biden’s also doing historically well in the suburbs, outpacing Clinton by 18%. This is notable, considering Trump’s recent, less-than-subtle appeals to suburbanites, who were a key swing demographic in 2016.

cnn.com/2020/07/19/pol…

B1c. A popular myth these numbers explode is that Biden's struggling with young voters. While pollsters divide age groups differently (e.g., 18-29 vs. 18-34, 30-44 vs. 35-50), he’s currently running 21% BETTER than Clinton with the youngest group, 18-29.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…

B1d. Biden is absolutely OWNING the political middle, doing 14% better with independents than Clinton, and 18% (!!!) better with moderates, and matching conservatives. This also helps Biden, based on a recent Gallup poll showing a substantial break toward the left.

B1e. One last myth to put to bed is that Biden struggles with liberals. In fact, he’s basically matching Clinton.

B1f. Two demographics where Biden has a slight weakness is Hispanic and Black voters: Trump’s ~5% stronger than 2016 with both groups, and a large number of undecideds still remain. Work to do, though polls show selection of Harris as VP might help.

B2. In May, The Hill noted voters who dislike both break HARD for Biden: NBC nat’l (60-10%), Civiqs nat’l (60-2%), OH Predictive Insights AZ (63-6), and Civiqs GA (60-2)

Trump won them by 10% in '16, but they didn’t break for him until OCTOBER!

thehill.com/homenews/campa…

B2. Also in May, CNN polled "double likers" (a group about the same size as "haters"). They favor Trump by ~40, but advantage is Biden's, since likers less likely to be swayed by smears than their counterparts (esp w/Trump’s higher "very unfavorable").

cnn.com/2020/05/13/pol…

B3. One reason Biden's doing so well? Voters just LIKE Biden more than Trump:

Biden's overall un/favorable are currently even, and more importantly, it is 13% BETTER than Trump, whereas Clinton’s rating was only slightly better than Trump's in 2016.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

B3a. Also, the percent of respondents who rate Trump "very" or "highly" unfavorable is consistently MUCH worse for Trump, currently 16% higher than Biden!

B3b. This reflects Trump’s job approval, which is the lowest in overall average of any president in modern polling. At this point in his third year, Trump's only slightly ahead of the last two incumbents who lost, GHW Bush and Carter. He's also behind Ford's final numbers.

B4. Some polls show voters less enthusiastic to vote for Biden than Trump, but enthusiasm is about turning out the party base, and in the Dem primaries (also the 2018 midterms), it's the desire to beat Trump that's turned out record numbers.

4a. A recent poll found 80% of Biden voters have a very unfavorable view of Trump, but vice-versa just 53%. Also, voting AGAINST a candidate has become more powerful than voting for in the 21st century. Again, advantage Biden.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-t…

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

Speaking of turning out, remember that polls can CHANGE, as we see from the polling maps of July 2016 and Election Day. Whatever the polls say, they don’t mean anything unless you show up and VOTE!

So in closing, VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!

Harris polls: