Thread by @KawasakiKR11

This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: S/X inventory returns. More chatter on Q3 Model 3 deliveries.

S/X/3 summary.

Not clear if they're on Glovis Splender or their might have been another small shipment, but many new S/X are now listed in inventory.

It appears most P/LR backlog will be cleared. Most, including those who ordered in June/July are getting delivery dates. Same for SR+ buyers who ordered in Q1 or earlier. Not yet clear when SR+ buyers who ordered in Q2/Q3 will get theirs. For 2020, each trim is ~1/3 of orders.

While updating my data, I noticed how much Japan has diminished as a market for Tesla. JPN used to account for almost 2% of WW sales during S intro. ~1% for X. But only ~0.5% for 3 at its peak. I expect it to go back up to ~0.5% in Q3, but not much more & less in Q4.

It's clearer on TTM bases. I seriously doubt Model 3 can push it up to 0.4~0.5% range.

It's not like subsidy has been lowered or anything. As many lemmings have told me, 3 should be more popular because of its somewhat smaller size & lower prices.

More likely, Tesla has already become stale. Cars are refreshed more frequently in JPN. In Japan, things are either popular forever (hi, Cyndi Lauper!) or out of fashion very quickly. Not much middle ground. Tesla seems to belong to the latter group.

JPN is the 3rd largest auto market in the world after China & US, accounting for 5~6% of WW auto sales. Prob. higher for luxury vehicles. It's also where range is not a huge issue & older shorter range Leaf sold reasonably well (Leaf still has >90% of BEV market share).