Thread by @thesecurityguy1

1/19 No, I’m not an epidemiologist, virologist or even a Dr but I have managed my company’s response to the virus across APAC, working closely with such people, for the last 211 days straight, so I ‘know things’ and have learned more along the way #COVID19 #covid19australia

2/19 I just can’t take the lies, obfuscation and misrepresentations coming from politicians & their MSM cheer squad a moment longer. Strap in for a small thread that I hope clarifies a few things and, probably, already confirms much of what you are already thinking.

3/19 For all below source health.gov.au & worldometer.

All we hear in Australia, relentlessly, day on day uttered in hushed, funereal, tones is the number of cases, with the implication that case=hospitalization and death. It does not. This is simply untrue.

4/19 The focus on ‘cases’ and the incorrect associated effect is used to close borders, destroy businesses, crush economies, separate families, prevent other medical treatment and destroy our freedom. So, let’s look at some facts as at today

5/19 Globally we have 6,474,403 active cases, 6,412,360 (99%) are categorized as mild condition. Of the 22,306,539 total confirmed cases, 15,047,783 (95%) have recovered which, if we extrapolate that, means a further 6,091,742 of current active cases will also recover

6/19 But, I hear you say: of the 15,832,136 closed cases globally, 784,353 have died – that’s a massive 5%! I won’t start on the misrepresentations of death from & death with COVID19 but I will say the fatality rate of this virus is not 5% nor anywhere near. Let’s examine that:

7/19 Most commonly cited fatality statistics are calculated based on the ratio of cumulative confirmed deaths to cumulative confirmed cases. However, as long as the outbreak is ongoing, this statistic remains flawed.

8/19 In most cases, the progression of infection can typically be known only after 2-4 weeks meaning IFR calculation is not reflective of the progression of infection.

9/19 Add to this the fact that a number of countries have insufficient or inaccurate testing capabilities, resulting in many unidentified cases that are excluded from the census and we can see this method is deeply flawed (yet is the one most commonly cited !)

10/19 Calculation of Hospitalization Fatality Risk (HFR) focusses on hospitalized cases, but fails to take into account mild cases of infection where treatment in hospital may not be required; this is especially true for any asymptomatic cases. Again, not valid.

11/19 Symptomatic case fatality risk (sCFR): Death rate ÷ number of infected & symptomatic cases is widely held as more accurate than IFR or HFR (but there are also limitations to sCFR). We apply this the current calculated global fatality rate is 1.4%. Anyway, back to Oz stats

12/19 Australia has 23,989 total confirmed cases, of which 8610 are active. This means 15,370 cases have had an outcome. 14,929 of those closed cases (97.07%) have recovered. Again, extrapolating that we can expect 8,358 of current active cases to recover.

13/19 Do we have a rampaging community spread? No, we do not – with the exception of the hotel-quarantine led disaster in Victoria – the vast majority of all Australian cases have been overseas acquired, detected early and controlled.

14/19 Yes, we have had 450 deaths but the overwhelming majority of those have been very elderly and / or with serious underlying medical conditions. Age groups 70+ represent the biggest fatality demographic with the 80-89 group the largest of that.

15/19 I’m not in any way minimizing these deaths but we need to put this into perspective. In particular we need to examine these deaths against usual fatality rates in this demographic (‘excess mortality’) to understand the true impact of the virus. I suspect it will be low

16/19 So, to wrap up: day after day it’s politicians and a fear-stoking media pushing case numbers and the sad deaths of very elderly or already very sick people. Somehow ‘flatten the curve’ has morphed into ‘100% eradication’ – a patent impossibility.

17/19 We never hear of the high recovery rates or the overwhelming number of mild cases. We never hear of the overall low Symptomatic case fatality rate and we never hear of the minimal effect this virus has had on our health system.

18/19 We never hear of the spike in suicide rates, depressive illness and deaths due to postponed / delayed medical treatments for other serious conditions.

We never hear of the effectiveness of 'Cluster Management' and the scientific flaws of 'Lockdown'

19/19 We remain lied to & locked up. We have to ask ourselves ‘why?’ I have a theory on that & you need look no further than upcoming state elections – but that’s for another time. It’s time we pushed back, demanded the truth and regained our lives. END
#COVID19 #COVID19Australia