These days, one of our 2019 working papers (@kielinstitute) by MEDAM researchers Claas Schneiderheinze & David Benček received substantial criticism from @m_clem, and is now being very much discussed.
A response.
1/6
A response.
1/6
The MEDAM research links rising #incomes with decreasing #emigration in poor countries thus challenging the causal interpretation of the “migration hump”.
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2/6
The critique is fundamental & sounds persuasive. @m_clem criticizes:
1) using annual data gives too much weight to bursts & busts
2) time fixed effects mask long-term econ. progress
3) the empirical setup with absolute emigration, GDP & population leads to spurious results
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1) using annual data gives too much weight to bursts & busts
2) time fixed effects mask long-term econ. progress
3) the empirical setup with absolute emigration, GDP & population leads to spurious results
3/6
Yet, the authors are well aware of these potential problems.
In fact, these concerns are all addressed in the most recent version of this paper (from June), which is available online now: medam-migration.eu/publications/r…
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In fact, these concerns are all addressed in the most recent version of this paper (from June), which is available online now: medam-migration.eu/publications/r…
4/6
In his new paper, Clemens himself is mostly interested in the long-run relationship between #migration and #development.
The MEDAM paper looks at the short- and medium run.
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The MEDAM paper looks at the short- and medium run.
6/6
