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ecoinometrics Profile picture
@ecoinometrics
Aug 20, 2020 • 12 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
Is it realistic for #Bitcoin to reach $100,000 per coin during this halving cycle?

Time for a thread. 👇👇👇
1/ PlanB (@100trillionUSD ) stock to flow model is targeting #Bitcoin to stabilize around $100,000 by the end of this halving cycle.

So far so good.

2/ The 3rd halving happened 100 days ago. Since then #BTC has gained 25%.

But to get to $100,000 we’ll need to see a total growth of 10x.

That’s still a long way to go.
3/ But applying the growth of the previous halvings to this cycle shows how fast #Bitcoin can rise in a short amount of time.

Even for the lower range of growth we would expect to hit $100,000 within two years. Image
4/ But what does it means for one #BTC to be worth $100,000?

Let’s put that number in context...
5/ Currently at $12k, #Bitcoin has a market cap larger than Jeff Bezos net worth but slightly smaller than the market cap of JPMorgan.
6/ At $23,000 #Bitcoin will be the same size as Visa.

That’s just above the all time high #BTC value of 2017.
7/ At $40,000 #Bitcoin will be worth the same as Facebook.

That’s still short of $1 trillion...
8/ With #Bitcoin at $100,000 its market cap would be the same as Apple.

How much money is that?

About $2 trillion...
9/ Next step is gold at almost $500,000. But it is unlikely #Bitcoin will get there during this cycle.

Still, check out the chart to get an idea of the scale 👇 Image
10/ So should #Bitcoin be worth at least as much as Apple?

I’ll let you be the judge of that.

But if you think that Bitcoin is digital gold, then its market cap should reflect that.

More on this here 👇 ecoinometrics.substack.com/p/ecoinometric…
Final words/

If you want to see more charts and get my insights on #Bitcoin's place in the future of finance then subscribe to the Ecoinometrics newsletter.

Subscribe: ecoinometrics.substack.com

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More from @ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics Profile picture
Dec 20, 2022
If you had dollar cost averaged the SP500 between 2010 and 2020 you'd have made almost twice as much as doing the same thing between 2000 and 2010.

There is always a luck component in the markets. You can't control that. Your job is to play your cards as best as you can.
Here is what you get from DCA the SP500 from 2000 to 2010 to the tune of $150 per week. Image
Here is what you get from DCA the SP500 from 2010 to 2020 to the tune of $150 per week. Image
Read 4 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
Nov 4, 2022
The spread between the 10yr and the 2yr US Treasury yield has never been so negative over the past 30 years. Image
The yield curve is actually inverted all the way down to the 10yr vs 3mo spread. Image
The yield curve hasn't been inverted to such degree for a long time. This is a sign that the bond market is anticipating a recession. Image
Read 5 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
Oct 6, 2022
Facts about dollar cost averaging:
• How often you DCA doesn’t really matter.
• There is no such thing as a best day to DCA.
• You can lose money with DCA, so choose your asset wisely.

More details 🧵 Image
You can dollar cost average an asset daily, weekly or monthly, over the long run it doesn’t matter.

The only thing that matters is that you are consistent.

Just do it. Image
You might want to “optimize” your dollar cost averaging strategy by picking the best time to buy.

This is pointless. Pick any day of the week to DCA, that makes virtually no difference over the long run. Image
Read 6 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
Sep 18, 2022
The Federal Reserve is messing up with the housing market.

The goal: make the average US citizen poorer.

Here is how they achieve that. 🧵
US families typically have the majority of their wealth tied to their home.

As of the last census in 2019, the family's primary residence represents on average 66% of their net worth.
If two third of your net worth is in your house a decline of the real estate market can make you significantly poorer really fast.

That's what the Federal Reserve is trying to achieve.
Read 11 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
Sep 17, 2022
Over the last couple of years home prices have done a pretty good job at keeping up with inflation.
At least housing has done a much better job at beating inflation than gold.
But who knows how long this is going to continue. 📉🤔
Read 4 tweets
ecoinometrics Profile picture
Sep 4, 2022
Sorry to break it to you, but dollar cost averaging isn’t the ultimate investment strategy.

If you are looking to maximize your return on investment, look elsewhere.

Let's see why and how to improve it.
You all know what dollar cost averaging is. Pick an asset:
- Buy a fixed $ amount of that asset.
- Do that at regular time intervals.

Continue until you are tired of it.
If you started dollar cost averaging the SP500 at $100 per week in 2012 you would now have:
- Deployed $50k.
- For a profit of $27k.
- Or a ROI of 54%.
Read 12 tweets

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