If you had dollar cost averaged the SP500 between 2010 and 2020 you'd have made almost twice as much as doing the same thing between 2000 and 2010.

There is always a luck component in the markets. You can't control that. Your job is to play your cards as best as you can. Here is what you get from DCA the SP500 from 2000 to 2010 to the tune of $150 per week.

The spread between the 10yr and the 2yr US Treasury yield has never been so negative over the past 30 years. The yield curve is actually inverted all the way down to the 10yr vs 3mo spread.

Facts about dollar cost averaging:
• How often you DCA doesn’t really matter.
• There is no such thing as a best day to DCA.
• You can lose money with DCA, so choose your asset wisely.

More details 🧵 You can dollar cost average an asset daily, weekly or monthly, over the long run it doesn’t matter.

The only thing that matters is that you are consistent.

Just do it.

The Federal Reserve is messing up with the housing market.

The goal: make the average US citizen poorer.

Here is how they achieve that. 🧵 US families typically have the majority of their wealth tied to their home.

As of the last census in 2019, the family's primary residence represents on average 66% of their net worth.

Over the last couple of years home prices have done a pretty good job at keeping up with inflation. At least housing has done a much better job at beating inflation than gold.

Sorry to break it to you, but dollar cost averaging isn’t the ultimate investment strategy.

If you are looking to maximize your return on investment, look elsewhere.

Let's see why and how to improve it. You all know what dollar cost averaging is. Pick an asset:
- Buy a fixed $ amount of that asset.
- Do that at regular time intervals.

Continue until you are tired of it.

When you think you are late, you probably aren't.

I'm talking about investing in the exponential age of course.

Let me give you an example.

Do you know what this chart is? I'll give you some hints:
- This is a price evolution chart.
- It is using a linear scale.
- It covers several years.
- It isn't Bitcoin.

Any idea?

Long Term Capital Management was THE giant hedge fund of the 90s.

Started by superstar trader John Meriwether, it basically printed money.

Until it suddenly collapsed and almost took away most major US banks with it.

Here is the story of the granddaddy of leveraged blowups.🧵 Long Term Capital Management or LTCM was founded in 1994 by John Meriwether.

Prior to that John was a superstar bonds trader at Salomon Brothers.

His specialty? Arbitrage.

Bear markets aren’t made to cry in the fetal position in the corner of the shower.

Believe it or not, they are a great time to hunt for asymmetric bets.

So maybe it is time to be an optimist.

Bear with me 🧵 Inflation is sticky and the Federal Reserve is starting to hit risk assets with the big stick.

So you might be tempted to call it quits and go cry in the shower.

But the thing is bear markets don’t last forever.

The Federal Reserve’s stated goal is to get inflation back at 2%.

Their main tool for that: make you poor. 🧵 Inflation is at a 40-year high in the US.

To put that in perspective, if inflation average at 8.6% over the next 8 years, your purchasing power will be divided by two over the same period.

Clearly this is some serious issue.

Charts of the week:

• How much is the Fed lagging inflation?
• Is the UST 10-year yield breaking the long term trend?
• How large is this bond market crash?
• Is #Bitcoin a risk asset?
• Is it a good time to go long #BTC?

See below
👇📈📊📉👇 Largest gap on record between the Fed Funds Rate and inflation.

You can barely see the uptick in the Fed Funds Rate on this chart.

Talk to me about fighting inflation.

#inflation Maybe just looking at the inflation rate is a little abstract.

So another way of thinking about that is to see how much purchasing power you will lose if inflation continues at the same rate for 5 years.

See for yourself.

{1/11} We were already in a bad spot with inflation going the way of the 1970s.

But with the Ukraine war and the economic sanctions against Russia all bets are off. 📈👀 {2/11} For context, the US just banned the import of Russian oil.

But Russian oil is no small matter, depending on which year you look at they are in a tie with Saudi Arabia as the second largest producer in the world. 📊🤔

{1/8} The stock market is down -12% and it is all because of the Federal Reserve.

But the thing is, so far, the Fed hasn't done much except for talking... 📉🧐👇 {2/8} The Fed Funds rate? Yep, it is about to go up... but so far it is basically zero and inflation has a massive head start... 📈🧐👇

1/ The US dollar index is ripping higher. Some people are worried that this is bad news for #Bitcoin.

Don’t. There is no direct relationship between the DXY and BTC.

Quick 🧵 2/ The US dollar index is a weighted average of the exchange rates between the USD and the currencies of some selected trading partners.

#Bitcoin after the Halving
Oct. 02, 2021

508 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $47,883

Despite lagging behind the growth trajectory of the previous cycles, Bitcoin remains pretty resilient... 1/4 2/4 We are one month away from the longest drawdown in #Bitcoin's history outside of an end-of-cycle bear market. 👇

1/ After the price action we have seen today, it is good to remember that #Bitcoin is exposed to the risk of liquidity events in the broader market.

That means if the SP500 dips significantly, leveraged traders will definitely sell some BTC to raise cash.

See March 2020. 👇 2/ Right now with the increased likelihood that the Fed will start tapering their purchasing program we get a higher chance of a significant corrections in the stock market.

Let’s remember that the Fed’s balance sheet is up $4 trillions in two years...

#Bitcoin after the Halving
Sep. 19, 2021

495 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $47,720

1/ For the past few months this cycle has been lagging behind the previous ones.

However most metrics point towards the fact that we are due for another leg up. 2/ That being said, in 40 days this drawdown will become the longest #Bitcoin has ever experienced outside of a bear market. 👇

#Bitcoin after the Halving
Sep. 11, 2021

487 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $45,596

1/ It has been 151 days since BTC hit its all-time high... 👇 2/ We are 50 days away from this correction being the longest drawdown #Bitcoin experienced in a post-halving bull market... 👇

#Bitcoin after the Halving
Aug. 28, 2021

473 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $48,583

1/ Some resistance at $50k. This is not totally unexpected but still... 2/ ... the recovery from the bottom of this correction is well underway.

We can hope that there will be some repeat of 2013 when #BTC came out strong from a -60% drawdown in the middle of the post-halving bull market.

#Bitcoin after the Halving
Aug. 26, 2021

471 days after the 3rd halving
#BTC at $46,995

1/ Some difficulties to push past $50k. Not entirely surprising when we look at some on-chain data... 2/ The addresses controlling 10 to 10k #BTC have been accumulating more slowly. In particular the whales have turned neutral on a 30 days basis.