1 of lots! My take on why it is difficult to read much into #COVID19 cases now compared to previously. Initially we tested only people who displayed symptoms missing many people who weren't tested due to lack of capacity or not really knowing when you should get tested.
Then our wonderful government decided that our testing capacity was woefully inadequate so if you had symptoms just stay home for 14 days and don't get tested. So we had no idea how many people really had it during this period and cases were therefore artificially low
Then we ramped up testing but only for those who were displaying symptoms and only if they came forward. So we would still miss a lot of cases and all asymptomatic cases. We would capture more cases but far from all.
Now we actively try and test people who have been in contact with someone who tests positive. We will therefore likely find asymptomatic people and those we would have previously missed. However, our test and trace system is far from perfect, thanks again to the #ToryShambles
So what does all this mean, although we are still missing some cases now we are capturing a much bigger proportion of all cases than previously. So if known cases are higher now that doesn't have to mean actual cases are higher. This is why the r value is hard to calculate
Looking at hospitalisations and deaths is a much better indication of how we are doing. Both of these remain low, which is promising, still need to be sensible but don't be overly anxious, stay safe and look after your #mentalhealth Ramble over! #FridayThoughts #coronavirus
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