1/4 🇸🇪 there have been speculation if 2019 with few deaths could impact the outcome of deaths 2020. What does history tell us? Instead of y2y I looked at consecutive flu seasons👇🏽and as we can see deaths increased until 2000 and then slight downward trend until 2014 and then up+ 
2/4 We see that most drops in all cause mortality (acm) season2season are followed by an increase the year after. Does larger drops (more than -3,37%) result in increases? Yes always during this period. Does the drop revert with equally large percentage increase? +
3/4 Well, so it seems at least. When looking at drops in three ranges we see that often a drop is followed by an on average equally large increase. 2019 had a large drop of acm which was followed by a large increase in 2020.+
4/4 mind the relative changes ofc and comment if thoughts.
@TTBikeFit @DaFeid @TLennhamn I believe all of you - plus many more - have looked at this aspect?
@TTBikeFit @DaFeid @TLennhamn I believe all of you - plus many more - have looked at this aspect?
Adding two graphs of relevance to the thread.
Adding this as well to thread👆🏽, relation between population and all cause mortality during flu season.
It’s intuitive, but yet not so intuitive for certain individuals comparing 150 years with no adjustment.
It’s intuitive, but yet not so intuitive for certain individuals comparing 150 years with no adjustment.
