Thread by @RijoMJohn

👉22 Aug: India crossed 3M reported #COVID19 cases & 56846 deaths
👉How India got here? Follow this thread for important trends national, state & district level
👉50% of total cases (15M) were added in the past 25 days
👉One crore tests done in past 12 days (TPR 7.6%)
👉 (1/n)

👉Cases growing at the rate of 2.4%
👉Active cases are now going up (growth 1.1%). It's important as it can stress our infrastructure
👉Tests growing at 2.7%. Close to 45% tests are now Rapid antigen
👉Daily tests close to 9L avg.
👉Daily fatalities now at 1000 levels (2/n)

👉Good to see growth of tests keeping above that of cases
👉Daily TPR beginning to go up again
👉Rapid antigen tests take >50% of testing in many states now including Delhi, Kerala, Andhra, Karnataka etc. 👉Some are not utilizing their full RT-PCR capacity
(3/n)

👉North East, except Meghalaya, brought the daily growth under 3%
👉Majority of the states got TPR<5% now
👉Southern states have high TPR despite doing relatively high Rapid Antigen tests
👉Very high TPR in MH & AP is highly worrying, both being very high burden states
(4/n)

👉Although the country has a relatively low mortality rate at 1.9% the variation across states & high MR in some high burden states such as MH & GJ are worrying
👉Mortality rates extremely low in almost the whole of Northeast
👉Many eastern states & KL also has very low MR
(5/n)

👉The graph shows the trends in mortality rates for both closed cases (recovered+deceased) and total cases
👉Both these rates are suppose to converge by the end of pandemic
👉High variations in these rates are apparent in most states
(6/n)

👉The daily reported numbers from y'day across states with at least 1000 cases shown here
👉The tests per million per day was the highest in Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Gujarat
👉Larger states like UP, WB, MP etc doing low tests per million per day
(7/n)

👉Trends in daily test per million per day and test positive rate across states with at least 5K reported cases
👉States that are increasing or keeping the TPM steady despite increase in TPR need to change their strategy
👉Assam & Jharkhand here, for example
(8/n)

👉This chart helps you figure out which are the states where active cases are on the rise and needs to be worried
👉There is clear sign of declining trends in cases in some states while it is going up in several others
👉This is why a peak for India as a whole is far away
(9/n)

👉Top 50 districts in India in terms of total cases
👉56.5% of cases & 69% of deaths now come from these districts
👉The trends in daily cases points to each districts being at varying stages of the pandemic
👉The virus has indeed spread far & wide
(10/n)

TL;DR:
👉The virus has clearly spread far & wide in the country & even to rural areas
👉While states are increasing Rapid Antigen tests, it should not be at the cost or replacing RT-PCR
👉States must report both tests & +ves by test types & by districts (n/n)

@jamewils
@ShamikaRavi
@Rukmini
@vrsrini
@devisridhar
@paimadhu
@epigiri
@RKRadhakrishn

There is typo in the first post here. 15M should be read as 1.5M. Kind of evident in the tweet. But still.