Thread by @TheLastDegree

Tradeplan/Bias: PM are hugely bullish, currently in consolidation/correction mode.

My main models are starting to 'line up'.

i have been sleepless last few days putting all variables into a tradeplan that covers different scenario's.

Any drop to $GDX 37-39 would cover my hedges. (all together)

i see a 90% probabilty we get further corrective action, only the path (direct, fast) or pennant (longer fustrating) is very troubled.

(2)

My preferred scenario would be a fast drop scenario, with a flat month after and a soft retest on lower volatility. That would align all methods.

Correction in price directly, correction in time after.
Metals could trade slightly lower, while miners find bottoms next 1-2 weeks

From a trade view, this is not simple. As renewed strength (for example a last daily cycle in time consolidation with 10 days of upside) could fast result in fomo, buying higher.

Be aware of that. We are facing another strong upwave.

Looking at options open interest, march is not solid so i am forced to go for leaps jan2022 or june 2021 which is nice, slightly more otm in that case as i matches a break free of big cap silver miners running 2-3-400%

Conclusion: miners might bottom very fast, and i will take those longs leveraged as this will mental be the best for me.

biggest caveat: another flat daily cycle (consolidation in time) would take all to early november.

The leap scenario covers both bullish scenario's.

i am back home since yesterday eve, and online next week

main takeaway, some picks like $AG are only a few % away from very very big buy zones

we might get a volatile start of the week for a few days
heads up mo/tue

a fast 8% drop could finnish a fast abc on $gdx