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Andrew Ellison Profile picture
@AndrewPEllison
Aug 23, 2020 • 3 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
Here's my map of yesterday's roll call vote on H.R.8015, the Delivering for America Act, that funds the US Postal Service $25 billion and reverses recent operational changes that have slowed deliveries. 26 Republicans broke ranks and supported the bill. #SaveThePostOffice Image
Notable yes votes from Republicans in competitive races include Don Bacon (NE-02), Rodney Davis (IL-13), Brian Fitzpatrick (PA-01), Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA-03), John Katko (NY-24), Fred Upton (MI-06), Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02), Ann Wagner (MO-02), and Don Young (AK-AL).
@SenhorRaposa @JMilesColeman @cinyc9 @MaronAoriak @ElectionMapsCo @rudnicknoah @HWLavelleMaps @xxxneonslavexxx @NathnJordn @djbj34

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More from @AndrewPEllison

Andrew Ellison Profile picture
Jan 7, 2021
Tonight, after an attempted insurrection by Trump-supporting rioters, House Republicans still voted 121-83 to overturn Arizona's electoral votes. Democrats unanimously opposed this motion, causing it to fail 121-303. Notably, at least 33 previous supporters flipped to no votes.
The Republicans who previous supported lawsuits and objections, but voted no tonight, that stand out to me include Greg Pence (IN-06), Elise Stefanik (NY-21), Dan Crenshaw (TX-02), Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), and most Pennsylvania Republicans, among many others.
There's a small possibility that a previous public supporter who flipped to a no vote tonight may have slipped through the cracks, because they weren't included on the lists I checked or for some other reason, but I think I got everyone.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Ellison Profile picture
Oct 14, 2020
The results of our crowdsourced SurveyUSA Indiana poll are officially in, showing a single-digit presidential race, strong support for cannabis legalization and Roe v. Wade, and much more! Read the thread below for results and analysis! Link with crosstabs at the end. (1/25)
As a primer, SurveyUSA divides Indiana into four distinct regions for crosstab analysis. I've created this graphic to help visualize these four regions, along with the 2018 US Senate results by region for comparison, which show the benchmarks each party needs to reach. (2/25) Image
US President (Indiana)

Donald Trump (R): 49%
Joe Biden (D): 42%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 6%

10/8-10/13 by SurveyUSA
527 Likely Voters

(3/25)
Read 25 tweets
Andrew Ellison Profile picture
Sep 21, 2020
I think almost everyone underestimates how much Eric Holcomb is collapsing with conservative Indiana voters due to his mask mandate because the Governor's race has received zero national coverage. I think the Libertarian nominee likely has double-digit support right now. (1/25)
As a refresher, Eric Holcomb represents the establishment, "moderate" wing of the Indiana GOP. He was Mitch Daniels' deputy chief of staff, Indiana GOP Chairman (2011-2013), and Dan Coats' state chief of staff. Holcomb is a consummate insider. (2/25)
indystar.com/story/news/pol…
When Coats announced his retirement in March 2015, Holcomb left to run for his Senate seat. The campaign never got off the ground, with no grassroots support and much of the GOP establishment backing Todd Young to stop Tea Partier Marlin Stutzman. (3/25)
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Read 26 tweets
Andrew Ellison Profile picture
Sep 18, 2020
There has been much discussion in recent years about abolishing the Electoral College. #OTD 51 years ago, the US House approved an amendment 338-70 to abolish the EC and establish a two-round popular vote system. I created this map to show the partisan/regional breakdown. (1/7) Image
In the 1968 election, Richard Nixon won 301 electoral votes (56%), but only won 43.4% of the popular vote, beating Hubert Humphrey by 0.7%. After the similarly close 1960 election, this created concern about the Electoral College and spurred reform. (2/7)
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Unit…
The Bayh-Celler amendment would have established a two-round popular vote system. The party who received the highest national popular vote would win the presidency if they won at least 40%. If no party won 40%, a runoff election would be held. (3/7)
library.cqpress.com/cqalmanac/docu…
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Ellison Profile picture
Aug 31, 2020
In November 2019, Indiana held elections for mayor, clerk, and city council in all 120 cities (plus the town of Zionsville) plus hundreds of town elections. Dems made big city council gains in the Indy metro; Republicans won big in North Central and East Central Indiana. (1/7) Image
Dem mayoral flips include the Obama 2008 cities of Elkhart, Portage, Decatur, Tell City, and Dunkirk; and the McCain 2008 cities of Zionsville, Washington, Charlestown, Scottsburg, and Tipton. Big gains in Indianapolis, Carmel, Fishers, and Columbus city councils as well. (2/7)
Republican mayoral flips include the Obama 2008 cities of Muncie, Kokomo, Michigan City, Logansport, Connersville, Peru, Portland, Hartford City, Alexandria, Winchester, Oakland City, Rockport, and Jasonville, all predominantly white working class cities amenable to Trump. (3/7)
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Ellison Profile picture
Aug 22, 2020
(1/7) Here is my extended thread on the #MO01 Democratic primary. On August 4, activist @CoriBush defeated 10-term incumbent Lacy Clay in a rematch of their 2018 bout. Bush dropped some in her southwest base, but improved everywhere else, especially in Clay's northeast base. Image
(2/7) #MO01 has distinct racial divides due to the legacy of redlining and white flight. The famed Delmar Divide splits the district into distinct northern and southern halves. Note that Cori Bush has done better in the south, while Lacy Clay has done better in the north. Image
(3/7) Arguably an even bigger #MO01 dividing line between Lacy Clay and Cori Bush is educational attainment. In 2018, note that pockets of white voters with fewer Bachelor's degrees in the far south and northwest still voted for Clay. They mostly swung toward Bush in 2020. Image
Read 7 tweets

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